Beaver projection
Wed, Oct 14, 8:00 PM ET
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · 80° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (WKU–Sam Houston) | 24–30 | – |
| Spread | Sam Houston −5.9 | No line |
| Total | 53.4 | n/a |
| Sam Houston win chance | 64% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Sam Houston by 5.911%
Western Kentucky by 14+
25%
Western Kentucky by 1–13
34%
Sam Houston by 1–13
31%
Sam Houston by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WKU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.191 #127 | Offense EPA / play | −0.095 #104 |
| +0.185 #126 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.092 #85 |
| −6.0% #115 | Offense success rate | −1.2% #74 |
| +4.8% #96 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.5% #93 |
| −0.198 #127 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.165 #121 |
| −0.192 #118 | Passing EPA / play | −0.074 #88 |
| +0.208 #133 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.215 #135 |
| +0.075 #81 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.046 #35 |
| −8.1 #108 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.9 #97 |
| +11.8 #130 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +6.7 #103 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.5% #78 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.3% #76 |
| +9.3% #131 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.5% #115 |
| −0.52 #90 | Points per drive | −0.93 #104 |
| +2.05 #135 | Points per drive allowed | +1.04 #102 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.67 #131 | Line yards per rush | −0.70 #132 |
| +0.48 #122 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.35 #109 |
| +7.8% #133 | Runs stuffed at the line | +8.6% #134 |
| −4.4% #118 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.0% #71 |
| +1.4% #98 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.6% #135 |
| −3.8% #124 | Havoc created | +1.9% #27 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.140 #119 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.096 #105 |
| +0.024 #62 | Passing explosiveness | −0.049 #95 |
| −0.72 #134 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.51 #119 |
| +0.074 #108 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.154 #24 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 46% #124 | Run rate | 42% #133 |
| −7.0 #53 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.3 #97 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WKU | Season to date | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-4 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 19.8 / 39.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 24.0 |
| -19.8 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -10.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +14.1 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.5 |
Western Kentucky: last 5 games
| L13-34 | |
| W52-7 | |
| L0-38 | |
| L20-70 | |
| L14-49 |
Sam Houston: last 4 games
| L14-49 | |
| W59-0 | |
| L17-23 | |
| L21-24 |
