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Troy
Sun Belt · 2026
3-2
Record
6.3-5.7
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
−6.4
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 17, 5:00 PM
at Louisiana
33% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Sam Houston
W
24-21
−11.4
−15.5
Sep 12
vs
Alabama State
W
34-17
−19.9
−23.5
Sep 19
at
14
Missouri
L
17-27
+28.2
+26.5
Sep 26
at
Utah State
L
10-21
+5.6
+3
Oct 6
vs
Southern Miss
W
55-34
−2.6
−9.5
Oct 17
at
Louisiana
33%
+6.9
–
Oct 24
vs
UL Monroe
87%
−18.6
–
Oct 29
at
James Madison
14%
+18
–
Nov 7
vs
Louisiana Tech
50%
−0.1
–
Nov 14
at
South Alabama
53%
−1.1
–
Nov 21
vs
Georgia Southern
51%
−0.5
–
Nov 28
at
Arkansas State
46%
+1.6
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.25
−0.15
−0.05
+0.05
+0.14
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: −0.19
Net · 2: −0.22
Net · 3: −0.19
Net · 4: −0.13
Net · 5: −0.20
Net · 6: −0.19
Net · 7: −0.15
Net · 8: −0.15
Net · 9: −0.15
Net · 10: −0.15
Net · 11: −0.15
Net · 12: −0.15
Net · 13: −0.15
Net · 15: −0.15
Offense · 1: −0.11
Offense · 2: −0.11
Offense · 3: −0.12
Offense · 4: −0.08
Offense · 5: −0.11
Offense · 6: −0.12
Offense · 7: −0.05
Offense · 8: −0.05
Offense · 9: −0.05
Offense · 10: −0.05
Offense · 11: −0.05
Offense · 12: −0.05
Offense · 13: −0.05
Offense · 15: −0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 1: +0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 3: +0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.10
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1476
1489
1502
1515
1528
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 6
Elo · Sep 5: 1510
Elo · Sep 12: 1524
Elo · Sep 19: 1509
Elo · Sep 26: 1480
Elo · Oct 6: 1498
Season to date
Record
3-2
Conference
1-0
Home
3-0
Away
0-2
Against the spread
2-3
Over/under
1-4
Points for / against
28.0 / 24.0
Avg margin
+4.0