Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Rynearson Stadium · 60° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Toledo–EMU) | 33–20 | – |
| Spread | Toledo −13.1 | No line |
| Total | 52.6 | n/a |
| Eastern Michigan win chance | 21% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Toledo by 13.148%
Toledo by 14+
32%
Toledo by 1–13
16%
Eastern Michigan by 1–13
4%
Eastern Michigan by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Toledo | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.009 #61 | Offense EPA / play | −0.110 #113 |
| +0.022 #65 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.129 #114 |
| −1.0% #79 | Offense success rate | −3.9% #105 |
| −1.5% #45 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.1% #116 |
| +0.033 #71 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.020 #93 |
| +0.001 #60 | Passing EPA / play | −0.143 #105 |
| −0.035 #38 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.086 #100 |
| +0.205 #121 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.141 #98 |
| +5.6 #24 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.6 #115 |
| +5.5 #103 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.2 #117 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #95 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.2% #84 |
| −0.4% #61 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #129 |
| +0.72 #24 | Points per drive | −0.92 #105 |
| +0.46 #97 | Points per drive allowed | +1.00 #115 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.18 #55 | Line yards per rush | −0.20 #116 |
| −0.08 #54 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.09 #84 |
| −3.5% #47 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.1% #112 |
| +1.9% #43 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #79 |
| −0.6% #88 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #119 |
| −3.0% #117 | Havoc created | −1.2% #81 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.076 #45 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.085 #38 |
| +0.335 #12 | Passing explosiveness | −0.065 #125 |
| +0.01 #52 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #101 |
| +0.104 #107 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.065 #94 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #79 | Run rate | 51% #118 |
| −14.1 #114 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −14.1 #115 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Toledo | Season to date | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-3 |
| 5-0 | Over/under | 2-4 |
| 42.4 / 25.6 | Points for / against | 22.2 / 25.0 |
| +16.8 | Avg margin | -2.8 |
| +6.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.0 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.5 |
Toledo: last 5 games
| W39-24 | |
| W41-16 | |
| W49-48 | |
| W63-10 | |
| L20-30 |
Eastern Michigan: last 5 games
| W38-14 | |
| W29-3 | |
| L10-54 | |
| L7-35 | |
| L21-27 |
