Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Doyt L. Perry Stadium · 52° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Ball State–Bowling Green) | 20–21 | – |
| Spread | Bowling Green −0.7 | No line |
| Total | 41.5 | n/a |
| Bowling Green win chance | 52% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Bowling Green by 0.717%
Ball State by 14+
31%
Ball State by 1–13
32%
Bowling Green by 1–13
19%
Bowling Green by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ball State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.129 #115 | Offense EPA / play | −0.263 #137 |
| +0.208 #131 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.091 #83 |
| −10.0% #134 | Offense success rate | −8.7% #132 |
| +5.4% #99 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #109 |
| −0.119 #112 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.332 #138 |
| −0.096 #91 | Passing EPA / play | −0.206 #120 |
| +0.214 #134 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.152 #118 |
| +0.182 #118 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.005 #47 |
| −10.7 #130 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −15.5 #137 |
| +11.7 #129 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.1 #107 |
| Situational | ||
| −6.0% #109 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.7% #132 |
| +7.5% #124 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.4% #42 |
| −1.47 #129 | Points per drive | −1.61 #135 |
| +1.95 #130 | Points per drive allowed | +1.73 #127 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.54 #124 | Line yards per rush | −0.75 #134 |
| +0.29 #101 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.55 #130 |
| +4.0% #112 | Runs stuffed at the line | +6.8% #129 |
| −1.0% #72 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.6% #96 |
| +4.0% #132 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.8% #130 |
| −4.2% #130 | Havoc created | −1.7% #92 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.117 #21 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.370 #137 |
| +0.003 #72 | Passing explosiveness | −0.082 #105 |
| +0.15 #36 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.93 #137 |
| −0.022 #71 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.087 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #101 | Run rate | 54% #44 |
| −6.8 #52 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.2 #41 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ball State | Season to date | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 0-2 |
| 0-3 | Away | 1-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 19.2 / 37.8 | Points for / against | 11.4 / 33.0 |
| -18.6 | Avg margin | -21.6 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.7 |
| 52.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 48.6 |
Ball State: last 5 games
| L24-39 | |
| L13-26 | |
| L15-51 | |
| W41-17 | |
| L3-56 |
Bowling Green: last 5 games
| W24-20 | |
| L6-14 | |
| L7-55 | |
| L7-56 | |
| L13-20 |
