BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Miami (OH)
Miami (OH)
Mid-American · 2026
2-3
Record
5.9-6.1
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
−10.4
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 2:00 PM
at Massachusetts
68% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
at
25
Pittsburgh
L
14-59
+15.7
+16.5
Sep 12
vs
Holy Cross
W
45-7
−35.4
−30.5
Sep 19
at
Cincinnati
L
31-35
+10.7
+14.5
Sep 26
vs
UConn
W
24-21
−0.2
−2.5
Oct 3
vs
Bowling Green
L
20-24
−17.3
−10.5
Oct 10
at
Massachusetts
68%
−7.7
−2.5
Oct 17
vs
Akron
63%
−5.5
–
Oct 24
at
Central Michigan
48%
+1
–
Nov 3
vs
Buffalo
75%
−11
–
Nov 10
vs
Ohio
41%
+3.5
–
Nov 17
at
Kent State
68%
−7.5
–
Nov 24
at
Western Michigan
31%
+7.9
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.19
−0.11
−0.02
+0.06
+0.15
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: −0.14
Net · 2: −0.17
Net · 3: −0.07
Net · 4: −0.04
Net · 5: −0.04
Net · 6: −0.13
Net · 7: −0.13
Net · 8: −0.13
Net · 9: −0.13
Net · 10: −0.13
Net · 11: −0.13
Net · 12: −0.13
Net · 13: −0.13
Net · 15: −0.13
Offense · 1: −0.08
Offense · 2: −0.05
Offense · 3: +0.03
Offense · 4: +0.03
Offense · 5: +0.03
Offense · 6: −0.01
Offense · 7: −0.01
Offense · 8: −0.01
Offense · 9: −0.01
Offense · 10: −0.01
Offense · 11: −0.01
Offense · 12: −0.01
Offense · 13: −0.01
Offense · 15: −0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 1: +0.06
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 3: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.08
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.12
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1459
1466
1474
1481
1489
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Sep 5: 1474
Elo · Sep 12: 1484
Elo · Sep 19: 1472
Elo · Sep 26: 1486
Elo · Oct 3: 1461
Season to date
Record
2-3
Conference
0-1
Home
2-1
Away
0-2
Against the spread
3-2
Over/under
4-1
Points for / against
26.8 / 29.2
Avg margin
-2.4