Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 4:30 PM ET
Rice Stadium · 89° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulsa–Rice) | 26–24 | – |
| Spread | Tulsa −2.8 | No line |
| Total | 50.0 | n/a |
| Rice win chance | 43% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Tulsa by 2.824%
Tulsa by 14+
33%
Tulsa by 1–13
29%
Rice by 1–13
15%
Rice by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulsa | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.079 #96 | Offense EPA / play | −0.114 #113 |
| −0.009 #47 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.112 #99 |
| −6.0% #114 | Offense success rate | −5.0% #106 |
| −0.2% #47 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #87 |
| +0.036 #47 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.068 #94 |
| −0.188 #117 | Passing EPA / play | −0.268 #131 |
| −0.060 #26 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.198 #128 |
| +0.061 #75 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.060 #30 |
| −5.2 #91 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.8 #115 |
| +2.0 #71 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +5.3 #93 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.4% #138 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.5% #124 |
| +4.7% #100 | Passing-down success allowed | +6.3% #113 |
| −0.97 #109 | Points per drive | −0.97 #108 |
| +0.36 #54 | Points per drive allowed | +1.22 #107 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #42 | Line yards per rush | −0.29 #100 |
| −0.02 #47 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.29 #100 |
| −3.0% #19 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.0% #100 |
| −0.4% #58 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.3% #103 |
| +0.8% #87 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.0% #90 |
| −2.2% #102 | Havoc created | −1.6% #89 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.129 #15 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.123 #18 |
| −0.181 #128 | Passing explosiveness | +0.252 #7 |
| −0.04 #60 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.23 #29 |
| −0.021 #74 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.002 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #99 | Run rate | 73% #3 |
| −10.7 #87 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −3.1 #32 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulsa | Season to date | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 27.8 / 21.2 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 27.4 |
| +6.6 | Avg margin | -9.4 |
| +0.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.5 |
| 63.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Tulsa: last 5 games
| L44-45 | |
| L6-34 | |
| W42-0 | |
| W23-17 | |
| W24-10 |
Rice: last 5 games
| L14-16 | |
| L24-38 | |
| L21-28 | |
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
