Beaver projection
Wed, Oct 7, 7:30 PM ET
Pitbull Stadium · 78° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (NMSU–FIU) | 18–24 | 18–26 | – |
| Spread | FIU −6.2 | FIU −8.4 | FIU −6.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 44.0 | 45.5 |
| Florida International win chance | 66% | – | – |
Line moved from FIU −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NMSU +6.5 ★ Under 45.5
Spread: 0.3 pts better than Vegas for New Mexico State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 4.0 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ FIU −6.5 ☆ Under 45.5
Spread: 1.9 pts better than Vegas for Florida International. Total: 1.5 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around FIU by 6.210%
New Mexico State by 14+
25%
New Mexico State by 1–13
35%
Florida International by 1–13
31%
Florida International by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| NMSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.189 #126 | Offense EPA / play | −0.214 #132 |
| +0.134 #107 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.072 #76 |
| −7.3% #126 | Offense success rate | −7.4% #127 |
| +5.7% #102 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #60 |
| −0.159 #120 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.226 #134 |
| −0.177 #113 | Passing EPA / play | −0.236 #125 |
| +0.102 #98 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.021 #53 |
| +0.148 #100 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.086 #85 |
| −7.5 #105 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −14.2 #134 |
| +8.1 #116 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #66 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.0% #73 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.8% #95 |
| +4.8% #101 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.4% #41 |
| −1.24 #123 | Points per drive | −1.83 #136 |
| +1.23 #108 | Points per drive allowed | +0.47 #63 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.42 #115 | Line yards per rush | −0.57 #127 |
| +0.26 #91 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.05 #44 |
| +2.2% #89 | Runs stuffed at the line | +3.7% #106 |
| −0.5% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.0% #86 |
| +3.2% #123 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.5% #104 |
| −4.2% #130 | Havoc created | −1.1% #76 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.050 #47 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.239 #135 |
| +0.103 #34 | Passing explosiveness | −0.083 #106 |
| −0.11 #67 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.96 #138 |
| −0.038 #66 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.038 #65 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 47% #119 | Run rate | 50% #98 |
| −14.5 #108 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −20.7 #136 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| NMSU | Season to date | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-3 |
| 27.8 / 26.4 | Points for / against | 18.0 / 14.5 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +3.5 |
| +5.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.0 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 73.5 |
New Mexico State: last 5 games
| W34-13 | |
| L18-42 | |
| L19-29 | |
| W51-14 | |
| L17-34 |
Florida International: last 4 games
| W20-3 | |
| L10-16 | |
| W33-20 | |
| L9-19 |
