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Florida State
ACC · 2026
3-2
Record
6.2-5.8
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
+7.3
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Fri, Oct 9, 7:00 PM
at Louisville
38% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Aug 29
vs
New Mexico State
W
34-17
−31.2
−30.5
Sep 7
vs
24
SMU
L
24-27
−3.8
+3
Sep 19
at
6
Alabama
L
36-50
+28.9
+18.5
Sep 26
vs
Central Arkansas
W
34-7
−43.4
−45.5
Oct 3
vs
Virginia
W
38-7
+2.8
+1.5
Oct 9
at
Louisville
38%
+5.2
+3.5
Oct 17
at
4
Miami
12%
+18.9
+16.5
Oct 31
vs
Clemson
68%
−7.3
+1.5
Nov 7
at
Boston College
78%
−12.4
–
Nov 13
at
25
Pittsburgh
36%
+5.9
–
Nov 21
vs
NC State
58%
−3.2
–
Nov 27
vs
16
Florida
36%
+6.1
+4.5
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.07
−0.01
+0.05
+0.11
+0.17
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: +0.11
Net · 2: −0.06
Net · 3: −0.02
Net · 4: +0.01
Net · 5: −0.04
Net · 6: +0.03
Net · 7: +0.03
Net · 8: +0.03
Net · 9: +0.03
Net · 10: +0.03
Net · 11: +0.03
Net · 12: +0.03
Net · 13: +0.03
Net · 15: +0.03
Offense · 1: +0.10
Offense · 2: +0.06
Offense · 3: +0.08
Offense · 4: +0.12
Offense · 5: +0.11
Offense · 6: +0.14
Offense · 7: +0.14
Offense · 8: +0.14
Offense · 9: +0.14
Offense · 10: +0.14
Offense · 11: +0.14
Offense · 12: +0.14
Offense · 13: +0.14
Offense · 15: +0.14
Defense (lower is better) · 1: −0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 3: +0.10
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.12
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.11
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.11
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1461
1475
1490
1504
1519
Aug 29
Sep 7
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Aug 29: 1484
Elo · Sep 7: 1474
Elo · Sep 19: 1465
Elo · Sep 26: 1472
Elo · Oct 3: 1515
Season to date
Record
3-2
Conference
1-1
Home
3-1
Away
0-1
Against the spread
2-2-1
Over/under
1-4
Points for / against
33.2 / 21.6
Avg margin
+11.6