Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 85° · wind 14 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nevada–UTEP) | 30–21 | 36–22 | – |
| Spread | Nevada −8.6 | Nevada −14.8 | Nevada −9.5 |
| Total | 50.9 | 58.1 | 49.5 |
| UTEP win chance | 29% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +9.5 ★ Over 49.5
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Nevada −9.5 ☆ Over 49.5
Spread: 5.3 pts better than Vegas for Nevada. Total: 8.6 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nevada by 8.637%
Nevada by 14+
34%
Nevada by 1–13
22%
UTEP by 1–13
8%
UTEP by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nevada | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.164 #123 | Offense EPA / play | −0.248 #136 |
| +0.183 #124 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.209 #132 |
| −6.6% #120 | Offense success rate | −7.3% #125 |
| +5.8% #105 | Defense success rate allowed | +10.0% #134 |
| −0.051 #83 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.186 #125 |
| −0.294 #133 | Passing EPA / play | −0.251 #129 |
| +0.139 #113 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.126 #106 |
| +0.256 #131 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.368 #137 |
| −8.7 #116 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.9 #125 |
| +8.0 #114 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +16.2 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.8% #86 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.5% #125 |
| +5.8% #111 | Passing-down success allowed | +9.8% #133 |
| −1.22 #121 | Points per drive | −1.11 #112 |
| +1.23 #109 | Points per drive allowed | +3.29 #138 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #95 | Line yards per rush | −0.48 #122 |
| +0.50 #124 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.26 #92 |
| +4.1% #115 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.4% #131 |
| −5.0% #124 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.6% #49 |
| +2.4% #114 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.8% #136 |
| −3.9% #126 | Havoc created | −3.3% #118 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.013 #64 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.011 #72 |
| +0.097 #35 | Passing explosiveness | +0.000 #74 |
| +0.00 #55 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.37 #102 |
| +0.025 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.060 #60 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #28 | Run rate | 56% #26 |
| −18.1 #126 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.9 #44 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nevada | Season to date | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 27.2 / 24.2 | Points for / against | 16.4 / 41.4 |
| +3.0 | Avg margin | -25.0 |
| +4.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.5 |
| 60.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 36.6 |
Nevada: last 4 games
| L33-36 | |
| L20-27 | |
| L7-20 | |
| W49-14 |
UTEP: last 5 games
| L7-61 | |
| L7-33 | |
| L17-52 | |
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
