BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA · 2026
2-3
Record
4.0-8.0
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
−19.7
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Tue, Oct 13, 7:00 PM
vs Delaware
34% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Murray State
W
38-14
−29.8
−22.5
Sep 12
at
Marshall
L
26-28
+11.3
+11.5
Sep 19
vs
Nevada
W
27-20
+2.5
+3.5
Sep 26
at
Jacksonville State
L
13-23
+8.4
+7
Oct 3
at
Kansas
L
0-55
+22.1
+21.5
Oct 13
vs
Delaware
34%
+6.6
–
Oct 20
at
Florida International
23%
+11.3
–
Oct 28
vs
Kennesaw State
30%
+8.1
–
Nov 7
vs
Western Kentucky
34%
+6.7
–
Nov 14
at
Liberty
8%
+22.4
–
Nov 21
at
Sam Houston
23%
+11.5
–
Nov 28
vs
New Mexico State
41%
+3.5
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.37
−0.21
−0.06
+0.10
+0.26
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: −0.27
Net · 2: −0.33
Net · 3: −0.28
Net · 4: −0.27
Net · 5: −0.26
Net · 6: −0.31
Net · 7: −0.31
Net · 8: −0.31
Net · 9: −0.31
Net · 10: −0.31
Net · 11: −0.31
Net · 12: −0.31
Net · 13: −0.31
Net · 15: −0.31
Offense · 1: −0.11
Offense · 2: −0.11
Offense · 3: −0.09
Offense · 4: −0.11
Offense · 5: −0.11
Offense · 6: −0.15
Offense · 7: −0.15
Offense · 8: −0.15
Offense · 9: −0.15
Offense · 10: −0.15
Offense · 11: −0.15
Offense · 12: −0.15
Offense · 13: −0.15
Offense · 15: −0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 1: +0.16
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.22
Defense (lower is better) · 3: +0.19
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.16
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.15
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1347
1358
1369
1380
1391
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Sep 5: 1372
Elo · Sep 12: 1366
Elo · Sep 19: 1388
Elo · Sep 26: 1375
Elo · Oct 3: 1350
Season to date
Record
2-3
Conference
0-1
Home
2-0
Away
0-3
Against the spread
3-2
Over/under
1-4
Points for / against
20.8 / 28.0
Avg margin
-7.2