Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 PM ET
Alamodome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Navy–UTSA) | 17–35 | – |
| Spread | UTSA −18.0 | No line |
| Total | 51.2 | n/a |
| UTSA win chance | 87% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UTSA by 18.02%
Navy by 14+
11%
Navy by 1–13
27%
UTSA by 1–13
60%
UTSA by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Navy | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.088 #98 | Offense EPA / play | +0.005 #60 |
| +0.108 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.015 #44 |
| −2.3% #83 | Offense success rate | −1.7% #76 |
| +1.9% #70 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.0% #60 |
| −0.040 #80 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.037 #45 |
| −0.331 #137 | Passing EPA / play | −0.073 #87 |
| +0.023 #54 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.060 #75 |
| +0.172 #115 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.039 #36 |
| −9.1 #120 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.2 #58 |
| +5.2 #91 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #79 |
| Situational | ||
| −10.5% #133 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.5% #123 |
| +3.8% #91 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.2% #69 |
| −1.14 #115 | Points per drive | −0.16 #73 |
| +0.89 #93 | Points per drive allowed | +0.47 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.02 #51 | Line yards per rush | −0.31 #105 |
| +0.01 #52 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #87 |
| −0.5% #53 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #93 |
| +1.1% #41 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.6% #108 |
| +1.6% #106 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #40 |
| −2.9% #113 | Havoc created | −2.4% #107 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.002 #69 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.041 #85 |
| +0.048 #47 | Passing explosiveness | −0.098 #112 |
| +0.06 #44 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.03 #49 |
| +0.138 #122 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.066 #56 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 71% #4 | Run rate | 52% #63 |
| −20.2 #134 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.3 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Navy | Season to date | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-3 | Away | 2-1 |
| 0-4 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 25.2 / 22.8 | Points for / against | 31.4 / 26.2 |
| +2.5 | Avg margin | +5.2 |
| -7.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.5 |
| 58.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.0 |
Navy: last 4 games
| L9-14 | |
| L20-24 | |
| L30-38 | |
| W42-15 |
UTSA: last 5 games
| W16-14 | |
| W59-45 | |
| L6-30 | |
| W31-26 | |
| W45-16 |
