Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 57° · wind 12 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Northwestern–Michigan State) | 30–19 | – |
| Spread | Northwestern −10.9 | No line |
| Total | 48.6 | n/a |
| Michigan State win chance | 24% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Northwestern by 10.942%
Northwestern by 14+
33%
Northwestern by 1–13
19%
Michigan State by 1–13
6%
Michigan State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Northwestern | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.176 #10 | Offense EPA / play | −0.109 #112 |
| −0.005 #55 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.026 #68 |
| +8.2% #9 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #49 |
| +2.8% #91 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.9% #42 |
| +0.217 #7 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.057 #107 |
| +0.136 #23 | Passing EPA / play | −0.147 #108 |
| +0.046 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #51 |
| −0.082 #25 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.052 #71 |
| +5.6 #23 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #95 |
| −7.2 #14 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.0 #26 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.5% #17 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.5% #88 |
| −3.3% #29 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.5% #60 |
| +0.24 #56 | Points per drive | −0.48 #92 |
| −1.03 #8 | Points per drive allowed | −0.74 #19 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.45 #18 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #86 |
| +0.28 #116 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #44 |
| −6.7% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.6% #88 |
| −0.7% #81 | Opponent runs stuffed | +5.0% #13 |
| −3.6% #23 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.8% #117 |
| +1.7% #29 | Havoc created | −1.2% #83 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.068 #47 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.177 #128 |
| +0.072 #85 | Passing explosiveness | −0.079 #127 |
| +0.44 #13 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.49 #115 |
| −0.183 #6 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.184 #124 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 61% #22 | Run rate | 58% #45 |
| +4.3 #8 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +6.5 #2 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Northwestern | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 4-0 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.0 / 16.8 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +17.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 59.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Northwestern: last 4 games
| W34-13 | |
| L23-29 | |
| W41-7 | |
| W34-18 |
Michigan State: last 5 games
| L3-31 | |
| L13-31 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
