Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Beaver Stadium · 54° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USC–Penn State) | 29–26 | 26–29 | – |
| Spread | USC −3.1 | Penn State −3.7 | Penn State −1.5 |
| Total | 54.4 | 54.9 | 54.5 |
| Penn State win chance | 42% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC +1.5 ★ Under 54.5
Spread: 4.6 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Penn State −1.5 ☆ Over 54.5
Spread: 2.2 pts better than Vegas for Penn State. Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 3.125%
USC by 14+
33%
USC by 1–13
28%
Penn State by 1–13
14%
Penn State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| USC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.191 #7 | Offense EPA / play | +0.030 #50 |
| +0.053 #71 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.064 #24 |
| +8.1% #8 | Offense success rate | −2.1% #82 |
| +0.4% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.4% #33 |
| +0.034 #49 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.057 #86 |
| +0.331 #5 | Passing EPA / play | +0.111 #35 |
| +0.021 #52 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.089 #91 |
| +0.137 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.306 #1 |
| +8.9 #15 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #46 |
| +0.2 #55 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.7 #19 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.7% #4 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +1.2% #50 |
| +2.9% #87 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.5% #21 |
| +1.45 #11 | Points per drive | +0.54 #35 |
| +0.29 #51 | Points per drive allowed | −0.21 #24 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #34 | Line yards per rush | −0.43 #117 |
| −0.01 #49 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.13 #31 |
| −0.9% #47 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #63 |
| −2.4% #94 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.5% #18 |
| −4.8% #3 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #75 |
| −2.7% #111 | Havoc created | +2.2% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.030 #80 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.057 #95 |
| +0.049 #46 | Passing explosiveness | +0.106 #31 |
| −0.44 #110 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.38 #105 |
| +0.161 #128 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.494 #1 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #62 | Run rate | 52% #65 |
| −2.2 #24 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.0 #46 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| USC | Season to date | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-5 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 37.3 / 25.5 | Points for / against | 32.0 / 16.0 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | +16.0 |
| -7.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -4.0 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.4 |
USC: last 5 games
| W25-21 | |
| L27-41 | |
| W42-35 | |
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 |
Penn State: last 5 games
| L13-34 | |
| L20-24 | |
| W55-13 | |
| W27-9 | |
| W45-0 |
