Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium · 70° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio State–Iowa) | 30–21 | – | 31–14 |
| Spread | Ohio State −9.1 | Ohio State −14.5 | Ohio State −17 |
| Total | 50.3 | 46.5 | 45 |
| Iowa win chance | 28% | – | – |
Line moved from Ohio State −14 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Iowa +14.5 Lost★ Over 46.5 Lost
Spread: 5.4 pts better than Vegas for Iowa (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.8 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio State by 9.138%
Ohio State by 14+
34%
Ohio State by 1–13
21%
Iowa by 1–13
7%
Iowa by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.234 #2 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #40 |
| −0.109 #9 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.078 #15 |
| +11.1% #1 | Offense success rate | +0.7% #51 |
| −3.9% #14 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.3% #10 |
| +0.091 #25 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.053 #40 |
| +0.315 #4 | Passing EPA / play | +0.056 #48 |
| −0.024 #37 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.139 #13 |
| −0.256 #4 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.057 #74 |
| +14.0 #6 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #44 |
| −10.9 #4 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −9.7 #6 |
| Situational | ||
| +10.7% #5 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.1% #94 |
| +1.2% #70 | Passing-down success allowed | −2.7% #26 |
| +2.25 #6 | Points per drive | +0.61 #32 |
| −0.69 #6 | Points per drive allowed | −0.65 #7 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.34 #10 | Line yards per rush | +0.28 #12 |
| +0.05 #60 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #27 |
| −2.4% #26 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.8% #5 |
| +0.0% #56 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.4% #30 |
| −3.5% #13 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.2% #7 |
| +3.8% #8 | Havoc created | −0.8% #75 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.021 #75 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.115 #25 |
| +0.061 #51 | Passing explosiveness | −0.183 #128 |
| −0.14 #69 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.44 #13 |
| −0.046 #64 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.069 #107 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 49% #99 | Run rate | 51% #80 |
| −4.7 #31 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.0 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio State | Season to date | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 42.2 / 12.6 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 12.6 |
| +29.6 | Avg margin | +16.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.6 |
| 58.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 50.8 |
Ohio State: last 4 games
| W42-19 | |
| W59-3 | |
| L23-24 | |
| W56-3 |
Iowa: last 4 games
| W20-19 | |
| W55-0 | |
| W16-13 | |
| W40-0 |
