Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 58° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Virginia–SMU) | 19–28 | – |
| Spread | SMU −8.3 | No line |
| Total | 46.8 | n/a |
| SMU win chance | 70% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SMU by 8.38%
Virginia by 14+
22%
Virginia by 1–13
34%
SMU by 1–13
36%
SMU by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Virginia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.012 #59 | Offense EPA / play | +0.053 #39 |
| −0.019 #50 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.019 #49 |
| +1.3% #53 | Offense success rate | +5.3% #18 |
| −1.4% #49 | Defense success rate allowed | −2.6% #33 |
| +0.107 #36 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.010 #88 |
| +0.023 #53 | Passing EPA / play | +0.129 #26 |
| +0.029 #68 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.029 #41 |
| +0.024 #64 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.012 #45 |
| −0.0 #63 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #46 |
| −5.0 #25 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.6 #56 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.2% #118 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.5% #33 |
| −8.6% #1 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.3% #30 |
| +0.37 #42 | Points per drive | +0.16 #60 |
| −0.54 #29 | Points per drive allowed | −0.03 #64 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.49 #13 | Line yards per rush | −0.13 #108 |
| +0.27 #115 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.30 #19 |
| −7.1% #6 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.8% #120 |
| −2.3% #103 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.3% #19 |
| −3.1% #34 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #62 |
| +0.2% #55 | Havoc created | +3.4% #11 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.028 #88 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.013 #84 |
| −0.006 #113 | Passing explosiveness | +0.121 #62 |
| −0.53 #119 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.09 #65 |
| −0.050 #47 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.152 #118 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #42 | Run rate | 51% #116 |
| −8.3 #72 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −8.9 #79 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Virginia | Season to date | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 33.8 / 18.0 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 23.0 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -0.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.3 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Virginia: last 5 games
| L7-38 | |
| W42-3 | |
| L27-38 | |
| W59-3 | |
| W34-8 |
SMU: last 5 games
| W25-16 | |
| W34-24 | |
| L31-41 | |
| W56-10 | |
| W27-24 |
