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Virginia
ACC · 2026
3-2
Record
6.6-5.4
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
+3.9
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM
vs Syracuse
70% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Aug 29
vs
NC State
W
34-8
+0.3
−4
Sep 11
vs
Norfolk State
W
59-3
−46.9
−47.5
Sep 19
vs
West Virginia
L
27-38
−15.2
−10.5
Sep 26
vs
Delaware
W
42-3
−15.5
−19.5
Oct 3
at
Florida State
L
7-38
−2.8
−1.5
Oct 10
vs
Syracuse
70%
−8.5
−9.5
Oct 17
at
24
SMU
31%
+8
–
Oct 23
vs
Duke
49%
+0.2
−6.5
Oct 31
at
Wake Forest
29%
+8.6
–
Nov 14
vs
California
82%
−14.3
–
Nov 21
vs
North Carolina
54%
−1.4
–
Nov 28
at
Virginia Tech
45%
+2.1
+1.5
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.12
−0.04
+0.04
+0.12
+0.20
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: +0.03
Net · 2: +0.14
Net · 3: +0.18
Net · 4: +0.08
Net · 5: +0.08
Net · 6: +0.02
Net · 7: +0.02
Net · 8: +0.02
Net · 9: +0.02
Net · 10: +0.02
Net · 11: +0.02
Net · 12: +0.02
Net · 13: +0.02
Net · 15: +0.02
Offense · 1: +0.02
Offense · 2: +0.06
Offense · 3: +0.09
Offense · 4: +0.06
Offense · 5: +0.07
Offense · 6: +0.01
Offense · 7: +0.01
Offense · 8: +0.01
Offense · 9: +0.01
Offense · 10: +0.01
Offense · 11: +0.01
Offense · 12: +0.01
Offense · 13: +0.01
Offense · 15: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 1: −0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 2: −0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 3: −0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 4: −0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 5: −0.02
Defense (lower is better) · 6: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 7: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 8: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 9: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 10: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 11: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 12: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 13: −0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 15: −0.00
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1537
1553
1569
1585
1601
Aug 29
Sep 11
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Aug 29: 1593
Elo · Sep 11: 1597
Elo · Sep 19: 1563
Elo · Sep 26: 1583
Elo · Oct 3: 1541
Season to date
Record
3-2
Conference
1-1
Home
3-0
Away
0-1
Against the spread
3-2
Over/under
2-3
Points for / against
33.8 / 18.0
Avg margin
+15.8