Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 86° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UCF–Houston) | 22–32 | – | 17–27 |
| Spread | Houston −9.9 | Houston −10.5 | Houston −10 |
| Total | 53.8 | 50.5 | 44 |
| Houston win chance | 73% | – | – |
Line moved from Houston −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UCF +10.5 Won★ Over 50.5 Lost
Spread: 0.6 pts better than Vegas for UCF (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.3 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 9.97%
UCF by 14+
20%
UCF by 1–13
33%
Houston by 1–13
40%
Houston by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UCF | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.094 #102 | Offense EPA / play | +0.168 #12 |
| −0.067 #20 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.018 #60 |
| −1.7% #79 | Offense success rate | +9.9% #5 |
| −1.7% #33 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.2% #70 |
| −0.072 #94 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.061 #37 |
| −0.127 #101 | Passing EPA / play | +0.301 #6 |
| −0.057 #25 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.049 #30 |
| −0.058 #34 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.058 #75 |
| +1.8 #52 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.0 #15 |
| −4.8 #18 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.3 #51 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.3% #88 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +17.0% #1 |
| −2.4% #31 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.1% #69 |
| +0.37 #39 | Points per drive | +1.59 #10 |
| −0.19 #24 | Points per drive allowed | +0.44 #61 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.44 #116 | Line yards per rush | +0.30 #11 |
| −0.26 #20 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.17 #28 |
| +2.2% #90 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.3% #32 |
| −0.3% #60 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.5% #64 |
| +0.5% #81 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.8% #5 |
| +0.9% #39 | Havoc created | +2.2% #23 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.055 #96 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.157 #126 |
| −0.087 #104 | Passing explosiveness | +0.042 #58 |
| +0.25 #21 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.16 #75 |
| −0.059 #58 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.031 #71 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #44 | Run rate | 57% #22 |
| −7.5 #50 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.6 #85 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UCF | Season to date | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 32.4 / 17.6 | Points for / against | 41.0 / 19.8 |
| +14.8 | Avg margin | +21.2 |
| +6.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.6 |
| 52.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.2 |
UCF: last 4 games
| W21-13 | |
| W44-30 | |
| L7-12 | |
| W73-6 |
Houston: last 4 games
| W42-28 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
