Final
Sat, Sep 26, 12:00 PM ET
Jones AT&T Stadium · 79° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Sam Houston–Texas Tech) | 15–40 | – | 14–49 |
| Spread | Texas Tech −24.6 | Texas Tech −34.5 | Texas Tech −35 |
| Total | 55.1 | 55.5 | 63 |
| Texas Tech win chance | 94% | – | – |
Line moved from Texas Tech −37.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Sam Houston +34.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Lost
Spread: 9.9 pts better than Vegas for Sam Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 49% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Texas Tech by 24.61%
Sam Houston by 14+
6%
Sam Houston by 1–13
19%
Texas Tech by 1–13
74%
Texas Tech by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Sam Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.049 #88 | Offense EPA / play | +0.057 #38 |
| +0.065 #86 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.055 #29 |
| −0.3% #71 | Offense success rate | +2.2% #43 |
| +0.5% #65 | Defense success rate allowed | −5.4% #13 |
| −0.146 #130 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.085 #45 |
| +0.004 #52 | Passing EPA / play | +0.139 #28 |
| +0.173 #133 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.028 #44 |
| −0.050 #36 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.084 #25 |
| −5.6 #97 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.8 #35 |
| +4.2 #92 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #17 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.2% #66 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.3% #56 |
| −0.3% #58 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.3% #61 |
| −0.86 #108 | Points per drive | +0.14 #49 |
| +0.59 #107 | Points per drive allowed | −0.82 #12 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.47 #132 | Line yards per rush | +0.19 #56 |
| +0.23 #109 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.06 #58 |
| +3.9% #131 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.9% #70 |
| −2.3% #102 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.7% #80 |
| +2.2% #128 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.5% #92 |
| +1.3% #30 | Havoc created | +1.6% #24 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.142 #123 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.022 #63 |
| +0.077 #80 | Passing explosiveness | +0.109 #72 |
| −0.41 #111 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.17 #71 |
| −0.124 #23 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.005 #66 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #134 | Run rate | 56% #67 |
| −18.4 #123 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.7 #43 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Sam Houston | Season to date | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-0 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 27.8 / 24.0 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 16.2 |
| +3.8 | Avg margin | +18.6 |
| +14.1 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.7 |
| 57.5 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.0 |
Texas Tech: last 3 games
| W28-26 | |
| W35-24 | |
| W33-10 |
