Beaver projection
Wed, Oct 7, 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium · 69° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (JXST–Kennesaw State) | 25–23 | 27–18 | – |
| Spread | JXST −1.8 | JXST −9.4 | JXST −3 |
| Total | 48.4 | 44.7 | 48.5 |
| Kennesaw State win chance | 45% | – | – |
Line moved from JXST −2.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Kennesaw State +3 ★ Under 48.5
Spread: 1.2 pts better than Vegas for Kennesaw State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ JXST −3 ☆ Under 48.5
Spread: 6.4 pts better than Vegas for Jacksonville State. Total: 3.8 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around JXST by 1.822%
Jacksonville State by 14+
33%
Jacksonville State by 1–13
30%
Kennesaw State by 1–13
16%
Kennesaw State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| JXST | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.043 #79 | Offense EPA / play | −0.087 #97 |
| +0.096 #89 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.149 #114 |
| −0.6% #65 | Offense success rate | −3.0% #89 |
| +6.4% #115 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #113 |
| −0.048 #82 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.022 #72 |
| −0.019 #69 | Passing EPA / play | −0.157 #109 |
| +0.170 #124 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.057 #74 |
| −0.007 #45 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.218 #122 |
| −6.8 #101 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −9.0 #119 |
| +6.6 #100 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.5 #76 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.7% #61 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.0% #97 |
| +1.3% #73 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.4% #106 |
| −0.47 #88 | Points per drive | −1.12 #114 |
| +1.43 #114 | Points per drive allowed | +0.79 #86 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.24 #96 | Line yards per rush | −0.22 #90 |
| +0.22 #86 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.29 #98 |
| +2.9% #96 | Runs stuffed at the line | +7.7% #132 |
| −3.4% #106 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.3% #56 |
| −0.3% #57 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #52 |
| −2.0% #99 | Havoc created | −5.0% #135 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.003 #71 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.003 #67 |
| −0.058 #97 | Passing explosiveness | −0.267 #136 |
| −0.23 #86 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.33 #96 |
| −0.085 #50 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.197 #10 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #35 | Run rate | 51% #83 |
| −18.0 #125 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.1 #70 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| JXST | Season to date | Kennesaw State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 3-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 0-4 |
| 27.4 / 21.8 | Points for / against | 21.8 / 22.5 |
| +5.6 | Avg margin | -0.8 |
| +0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 56.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.0 |
Jacksonville State: last 5 games
| W23-13 | |
| W31-27 | |
| L27-29 | |
| W49-7 | |
| L7-33 |
Kennesaw State: last 4 games
| L14-17 | |
| L9-42 | |
| L17-31 | |
| W47-0 |
