Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 10:00 PM ET
Hornet Stadium · 68° · wind 4 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Ohio–SAC) | 33–20 | – |
| Spread | Ohio −12.9 | No line |
| Total | 52.1 | n/a |
| Sacramento State win chance | 21% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Ohio by 12.947%
Ohio by 14+
32%
Ohio by 1–13
16%
Sacramento State by 1–13
5%
Sacramento State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Ohio | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.042 #78 | Offense EPA / play | −0.243 #135 |
| +0.159 #118 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.181 #123 |
| −1.9% #78 | Offense success rate | −7.5% #127 |
| +5.8% #104 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.2% #91 |
| +0.006 #60 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.248 #136 |
| −0.129 #104 | Passing EPA / play | −0.243 #128 |
| +0.127 #108 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.079 #87 |
| +0.221 #123 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.233 #127 |
| −5.9 #98 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −14.7 #136 |
| +6.7 #102 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +13.3 #133 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.2% #89 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.4% #129 |
| +10.8% #134 | Passing-down success allowed | −1.6% #40 |
| −0.92 #103 | Points per drive | −1.87 #137 |
| +1.13 #104 | Points per drive allowed | +2.05 #134 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.11 #33 | Line yards per rush | −0.90 #137 |
| +0.08 #66 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.52 #125 |
| −3.8% #13 | Runs stuffed at the line | +11.4% #137 |
| −0.7% #68 | Opponent runs stuffed | −5.6% #128 |
| −0.3% #58 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.3% #125 |
| −0.3% #62 | Havoc created | −5.4% #138 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.067 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.087 #104 |
| −0.048 #93 | Passing explosiveness | −0.236 #134 |
| −0.61 #127 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.30 #93 |
| −0.015 #76 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.004 #85 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #13 | Run rate | 44% #131 |
| −15.8 #116 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.9 #133 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Ohio | Season to date | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-2 | Away | 0-2 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 26.8 / 26.8 | Points for / against | 17.6 / 28.6 |
| +0.0 | Avg margin | -11.0 |
| -1.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.8 |
| 61.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.6 |
Ohio: last 5 games
| W13-10 | |
| W35-7 | |
| L36-41 | |
| W29-27 | |
| L21-49 |
Sacramento State: last 5 games
| L6-35 | |
| L10-31 | |
| L3-49 | |
| W52-0 | |
| L17-28 |
