Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Waldo Stadium · 76° · wind 16 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kent State–WMU) | 13–30 | 11–29 | – |
| Spread | WMU −17.2 | WMU −18.6 | WMU −13.5 |
| Total | 43.2 | 40.3 | 43.5 |
| Western Michigan win chance | 87% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ WMU −13.5 ★ Under 43.5
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.3 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ WMU −13.5 ☆ Under 43.5
Spread: 5.1 pts better than Vegas for Western Michigan. Total: 3.2 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around WMU by 17.22%
Kent State by 14+
11%
Kent State by 1–13
28%
Western Michigan by 1–13
58%
Western Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kent State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.205 #131 | Offense EPA / play | −0.064 #88 |
| +0.089 #82 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.082 #80 |
| −10.7% #136 | Offense success rate | −1.1% #73 |
| +7.5% #122 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.0% #109 |
| −0.210 #131 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.041 #80 |
| −0.134 #107 | Passing EPA / play | −0.115 #95 |
| +0.096 #94 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.083 #89 |
| +0.068 #79 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.070 #81 |
| −13.4 #133 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.9 #107 |
| +9.5 #123 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.7 #47 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.1% #137 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.5% #106 |
| +4.4% #96 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.0% #119 |
| −1.60 #134 | Points per drive | −0.82 #100 |
| +2.50 #137 | Points per drive allowed | +0.71 #79 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.54 #125 | Line yards per rush | −0.33 #106 |
| +0.42 #119 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.30 #102 |
| +4.1% #116 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.5% #80 |
| −2.7% #98 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.8% #111 |
| +2.9% #120 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #39 |
| −1.9% #98 | Havoc created | −3.4% #120 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.043 #86 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.061 #98 |
| +0.191 #15 | Passing explosiveness | −0.315 #137 |
| −0.71 #132 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.58 #126 |
| −0.103 #40 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.087 #47 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #53 | Run rate | 61% #8 |
| −7.2 #57 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −12.6 #99 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kent State | Season to date | WMU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 15.0 / 31.4 | Points for / against | 23.2 / 19.4 |
| -16.4 | Avg margin | +3.8 |
| -0.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +0.7 |
| 54.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.6 |
Kent State: last 5 games
| L10-13 | |
| W26-13 | |
| L3-59 | |
| W36-15 | |
| L0-57 |
Western Michigan: last 5 games
| W20-17 | |
| L7-32 | |
| W28-21 | |
| W49-14 | |
| L12-13 |
