Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Falcon Stadium · 46° · wind 15 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (UNLV–Air Force) | 24–24 | – |
| Spread | UNLV −0.1 | No line |
| Total | 48.4 | n/a |
| Air Force win chance | 50% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around UNLV by 0.119%
UNLV by 14+
31%
UNLV by 1–13
31%
Air Force by 1–13
19%
Air Force by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UNLV | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.102 #107 | Offense EPA / play | −0.067 #90 |
| +0.043 #68 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.141 #107 |
| −7.0% #123 | Offense success rate | −3.1% #92 |
| +1.6% #66 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.7% #84 |
| −0.104 #106 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.025 #53 |
| −0.120 #98 | Passing EPA / play | −0.253 #130 |
| +0.117 #105 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.147 #115 |
| −0.037 #37 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.174 #116 |
| −5.4 #93 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −6.8 #103 |
| +1.6 #68 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.1 #108 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.7% #120 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.7% #130 |
| +0.4% #56 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #62 |
| −0.81 #99 | Points per drive | −0.97 #107 |
| +0.47 #62 | Points per drive allowed | +1.14 #105 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.19 #86 | Line yards per rush | −0.09 #65 |
| +0.54 #129 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.42 #117 |
| +1.2% #76 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.2% #29 |
| −3.9% #112 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.5% #106 |
| +1.4% #100 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.9% #6 |
| −0.4% #63 | Havoc created | −4.4% #131 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.034 #55 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.012 #72 |
| +0.033 #54 | Passing explosiveness | +0.105 #32 |
| +0.05 #45 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.81 #136 |
| +0.166 #129 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.084 #110 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #45 | Run rate | 78% #1 |
| −9.7 #76 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −19.3 #131 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UNLV | Season to date | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 25.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 29.0 / 20.0 |
| +1.4 | Avg margin | +9.0 |
| -3.6 | Avg vs. the spread | -0.2 |
| 64.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 71.0 |
UNLV: last 5 games
| W39-31 | |
| W38-10 | |
| L6-44 | |
| W21-6 | |
| L21-27 |
Air Force: last 4 games
| W14-9 | |
| W36-33 | |
| L32-38 | |
| W34-0 |
