Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium · 66° · wind 12 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Air Force–NIU) | 27–24 | 34–17 | – |
| Spread | Air Force −3.2 | Air Force −17.1 | Air Force −7.5 |
| Total | 50.4 | 51.6 | 46.5 |
| Northern Illinois win chance | 42% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NIU +7.5 ★ Over 46.5
Spread: 4.3 pts better than Vegas for Northern Illinois (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Air Force −7.5 ☆ Over 46.5
Spread: 9.6 pts better than Vegas for Air Force. Total: 5.1 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Air Force by 3.225%
Air Force by 14+
33%
Air Force by 1–13
28%
Northern Illinois by 1–13
14%
Northern Illinois by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Air Force | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.067 #90 | Offense EPA / play | −0.199 #130 |
| +0.142 #108 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.188 #127 |
| −3.1% #90 | Offense success rate | −5.7% #113 |
| +3.8% #86 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.8% #106 |
| +0.026 #53 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.126 #115 |
| −0.252 #130 | Passing EPA / play | −0.238 #126 |
| +0.148 #115 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.150 #117 |
| +0.175 #116 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.158 #107 |
| −6.8 #102 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −10.2 #127 |
| +7.2 #106 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +8.6 #119 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.6% #130 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −11.0% #135 |
| +0.7% #63 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #122 |
| −0.96 #106 | Points per drive | −1.10 #111 |
| +1.15 #105 | Points per drive allowed | +1.59 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.09 #65 | Line yards per rush | −0.44 #119 |
| +0.42 #118 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.14 #74 |
| −2.2% #29 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.2% #117 |
| −3.5% #107 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #75 |
| −3.9% #6 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +2.5% #117 |
| −4.5% #132 | Havoc created | −1.2% #79 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.012 #73 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.032 #82 |
| +0.105 #33 | Passing explosiveness | −0.222 #131 |
| −0.81 #136 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.35 #99 |
| +0.084 #110 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.053 #62 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 78% #1 | Run rate | 50% #89 |
| −19.3 #131 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −0.9 #17 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Air Force | Season to date | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 0-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-3 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 29.0 / 20.0 | Points for / against | 13.8 / 36.2 |
| +9.0 | Avg margin | -22.5 |
| -0.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.2 |
| 71.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 53.2 |
Air Force: last 4 games
| W14-9 | |
| W36-33 | |
| L32-38 | |
| W34-0 |
Northern Illinois: last 4 games
| L14-35 | |
| L17-42 | |
| L24-28 | |
| L0-40 |
