Beaver projection
Fri, Oct 16, 7:30 PM ET
Yulman Stadium · 84° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Memphis–Tulane) | 30–28 | – |
| Spread | Memphis −2.4 | No line |
| Total | 58.0 | n/a |
| Tulane win chance | 44% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Memphis by 2.424%
Memphis by 14+
32%
Memphis by 1–13
29%
Tulane by 1–13
16%
Tulane by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Memphis | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.047 #42 | Offense EPA / play | −0.071 #92 |
| +0.129 #103 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.090 #82 |
| +1.7% #45 | Offense success rate | −7.9% #129 |
| +2.7% #77 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.6% #65 |
| +0.027 #52 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.027 #75 |
| +0.215 #11 | Passing EPA / play | −0.177 #113 |
| +0.244 #138 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.054 #72 |
| +0.006 #57 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.091 #86 |
| +4.4 #37 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −8.8 #116 |
| +3.5 #82 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.4 #45 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.1% #65 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −9.1% #127 |
| +0.6% #58 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.3% #90 |
| +0.21 #56 | Points per drive | −1.16 #117 |
| +0.61 #73 | Points per drive allowed | −0.02 #38 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.14 #27 | Line yards per rush | −0.50 #123 |
| +0.35 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #81 |
| −0.4% #57 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.1% #116 |
| −4.2% #115 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.1% #88 |
| −2.0% #28 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +3.6% #128 |
| −0.1% #59 | Havoc created | −2.5% #111 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.042 #50 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.144 #13 |
| +0.185 #18 | Passing explosiveness | +0.096 #36 |
| +0.61 #8 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.59 #9 |
| +0.112 #116 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.106 #38 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #32 | Run rate | 52% #65 |
| −15.0 #111 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −4.7 #40 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Memphis | Season to date | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 38.6 / 22.4 | Points for / against | 18.8 / 23.2 |
| +16.2 | Avg margin | -4.5 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -3.8 |
| 62.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 61.2 |
Memphis: last 5 games
| W59-8 | |
| W45-21 | |
| L20-38 | |
| W42-24 | |
| W27-21 |
Tulane: last 4 games
| W24-21 | |
| L20-31 | |
| W28-24 | |
| L3-17 |
