Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 7:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · 61° · wind 10 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UAB–Memphis) | 20–36 | 15–39 | – |
| Spread | Memphis −15.8 | Memphis −24.2 | Memphis −14 |
| Total | 56.7 | 53.4 | 53.5 |
| Memphis win chance | 84% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Memphis −14 ★ Over 53.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Memphis (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Memphis −14 ☆ Under 53.5
Spread: 10.2 pts better than Vegas for Memphis. Total: 0.1 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Memphis by 15.83%
UAB by 14+
13%
UAB by 1–13
29%
Memphis by 1–13
54%
Memphis by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UAB | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.151 #119 | Offense EPA / play | +0.048 #41 |
| +0.094 #86 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.130 #104 |
| −3.8% #93 | Offense success rate | +1.7% #45 |
| +7.7% #123 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.8% #78 |
| −0.025 #75 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.027 #52 |
| −0.308 #134 | Passing EPA / play | +0.216 #11 |
| +0.135 #112 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.245 #138 |
| −0.003 #50 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.007 #57 |
| −9.2 #121 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.5 #37 |
| +7.8 #113 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +3.6 #84 |
| Situational | ||
| −1.0% #64 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.1% #65 |
| +1.4% #78 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.6% #59 |
| −1.16 #116 | Points per drive | +0.21 #56 |
| +1.33 #112 | Points per drive allowed | +0.61 #73 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #68 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #27 |
| +0.69 #136 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.35 #111 |
| −1.0% #42 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.4% #57 |
| −6.5% #133 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.2% #116 |
| +2.2% #113 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.0% #28 |
| −2.4% #106 | Havoc created | −0.1% #60 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.039 #52 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.042 #50 |
| +0.032 #56 | Passing explosiveness | +0.186 #18 |
| −0.49 #116 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.61 #9 |
| −0.131 #30 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.111 #116 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #33 | Run rate | 55% #32 |
| −17.8 #124 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −15.0 #111 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UAB | Season to date | Memphis |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 38.6 / 22.4 |
| +0.6 | Avg margin | +16.2 |
| +0.4 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.5 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.0 |
Memphis: last 5 games
| W59-8 | |
| W45-21 | |
| L20-38 | |
| W42-24 | |
| W27-21 |
