Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium · 63° · wind 5 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Tulane–Army) | 22–28 | 25–20 | – |
| Spread | Army −5.9 | Tulane −4.4 | Army −3 |
| Total | 50.4 | 45.2 | 48.5 |
| Army win chance | 64% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Army −3 ★ Over 48.5
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Army (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.9 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Tulane +3 ☆ Under 48.5
Spread: 7.4 pts better than Vegas for Tulane. Total: 3.3 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Army by 5.911%
Tulane by 14+
25%
Tulane by 1–13
34%
Army by 1–13
30%
Army by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Tulane | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.053 #82 | Offense EPA / play | +0.031 #49 |
| +0.095 #87 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.213 #134 |
| −7.1% #124 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #46 |
| +1.9% #69 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.7% #129 |
| −0.013 #68 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.133 #10 |
| −0.160 #110 | Passing EPA / play | −0.071 #86 |
| +0.061 #76 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.208 #132 |
| +0.103 #88 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.231 #125 |
| −8.1 #108 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −2.7 #79 |
| −1.1 #45 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #70 |
| Situational | ||
| −9.2% #127 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −3.3% #90 |
| +3.6% #90 | Passing-down success allowed | +7.2% #121 |
| −1.10 #110 | Points per drive | +0.07 #62 |
| +0.00 #38 | Points per drive allowed | +0.88 #90 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.46 #121 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #35 |
| +0.20 #84 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.59 #131 |
| +3.5% #104 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.0% #30 |
| −2.1% #88 | Opponent runs stuffed | −2.4% #92 |
| +3.3% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −5.0% #2 |
| −2.7% #112 | Havoc created | −4.1% #129 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.140 #13 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.082 #34 |
| +0.082 #38 | Passing explosiveness | +0.003 #72 |
| +0.65 #8 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.22 #30 |
| −0.095 #43 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.030 #69 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #59 | Run rate | 78% #2 |
| −4.2 #39 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −13.8 #105 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Tulane | Season to date | Army |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 2-2 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 1-3 | Against the spread | 1-2-1 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 18.8 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 19.8 |
| -4.5 | Avg margin | +13.5 |
| -3.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.8 |
| 61.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.8 |
Tulane: last 4 games
| W24-21 | |
| L20-31 | |
| W28-24 | |
| L3-17 |
Army: last 4 games
| L29-31 | |
| W21-17 | |
| L24-28 | |
| W59-3 |
