Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:45 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field · 69° · wind 7 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (UConn–Temple) | 27–30 | 24–32 | – |
| Spread | Temple −3.3 | Temple −7.6 | Temple −3.5 |
| Total | 56.9 | 56.1 | 54.5 |
| Temple win chance | 58% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UConn +3.5 ★ Over 54.5
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for UConn (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Temple −3.5 ☆ Over 54.5
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Temple. Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Temple by 3.314%
UConn by 14+
28%
UConn by 1–13
33%
Temple by 1–13
25%
Temple by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| UConn | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.014 #70 | Offense EPA / play | +0.019 #54 |
| +0.109 #95 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.148 #113 |
| −3.9% #94 | Offense success rate | −3.2% #91 |
| +5.9% #108 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.2% #114 |
| −0.025 #74 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.043 #40 |
| +0.029 #58 | Passing EPA / play | −0.039 #78 |
| +0.053 #72 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.107 #100 |
| +0.154 #106 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.148 #101 |
| −1.0 #69 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.7 #86 |
| +7.2 #107 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +4.1 #87 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.9% #62 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.1% #57 |
| +8.5% #127 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.6% #110 |
| −0.27 #78 | Points per drive | −0.42 #85 |
| +0.90 #93 | Points per drive allowed | +0.81 #87 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.14 #79 | Line yards per rush | +0.05 #41 |
| +0.10 #67 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.13 #73 |
| +0.6% #69 | Runs stuffed at the line | −0.5% #55 |
| −0.7% #66 | Opponent runs stuffed | −6.0% #132 |
| +0.5% #78 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.8% #17 |
| −1.6% #90 | Havoc created | −4.7% #133 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.022 #59 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.014 #74 |
| +0.291 #4 | Passing explosiveness | +0.282 #6 |
| +0.01 #54 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.18 #32 |
| −0.030 #68 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.059 #61 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #64 | Run rate | 62% #7 |
| −16.7 #118 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.1 #55 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| UConn | Season to date | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| 0-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-2 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-0-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 36.0 / 26.2 | Points for / against | 25.8 / 24.8 |
| +9.8 | Avg margin | +1.0 |
| +8.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +5.8 |
| 58.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.6 |
UConn: last 5 games
| L41-42 | |
| L21-24 | |
| W48-20 | |
| L14-38 | |
| W56-7 |
Temple: last 5 games
| W17-13 | |
| L17-21 | |
| L48-49 | |
| L9-27 | |
| W38-14 |
