Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 10:30 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium · 66° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Fresno State–SDSU) | 23–20 | – |
| Spread | Fresno State −2.9 | No line |
| Total | 43.7 | n/a |
| San Diego State win chance | 43% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Fresno State by 2.924%
Fresno State by 14+
34%
Fresno State by 1–13
29%
San Diego State by 1–13
14%
San Diego State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Fresno State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.077 #95 | Offense EPA / play | −0.189 #125 |
| −0.034 #36 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.025 #59 |
| −5.5% #110 | Offense success rate | −8.9% #133 |
| +3.3% #80 | Defense success rate allowed | +4.0% #89 |
| −0.192 #126 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.090 #102 |
| +0.122 #31 | Passing EPA / play | −0.315 #136 |
| −0.002 #44 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.044 #32 |
| −0.050 #33 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.082 #83 |
| −3.1 #81 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −7.5 #105 |
| −2.0 #40 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.0 #65 |
| Situational | ||
| −0.6% #59 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −8.3% #122 |
| +1.3% #71 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.3% #51 |
| −0.46 #87 | Points per drive | −0.95 #106 |
| +0.56 #70 | Points per drive allowed | +0.27 #50 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.64 #128 | Line yards per rush | −0.17 #79 |
| +0.20 #83 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.36 #113 |
| +9.9% #136 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.9% #99 |
| −1.3% #75 | Opponent runs stuffed | −7.4% #135 |
| −0.0% #67 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.1% #94 |
| +0.1% #55 | Havoc created | −2.5% #110 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.075 #101 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.110 #24 |
| −0.004 #78 | Passing explosiveness | +0.024 #61 |
| −0.04 #58 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.27 #88 |
| −0.159 #21 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.010 #88 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #58 | Run rate | 59% #14 |
| −11.8 #95 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −5.8 #42 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Fresno State | Season to date | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 27.8 / 16.4 | Points for / against | 24.6 / 28.8 |
| +11.4 | Avg margin | -4.2 |
| +9.4 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.3 |
| 55.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 54.4 |
Fresno State: last 5 games
| W26-6 | |
| W38-24 | |
| W26-10 | |
| W49-3 | |
| L0-39 |
San Diego State: last 5 games
| W31-29 | |
| L16-41 | |
| L13-26 | |
| L10-28 | |
| W53-20 |
