Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 64° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (WSU–Oregon State) | 18–33 | – |
| Spread | Oregon State −15.3 | No line |
| Total | 50.4 | n/a |
| Oregon State win chance | 83% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 15.33%
Washington State by 14+
13%
Washington State by 1–13
30%
Oregon State by 1–13
53%
Oregon State by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| WSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.199 #129 | Offense EPA / play | +0.078 #31 |
| +0.050 #70 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.032 #62 |
| −7.9% #130 | Offense success rate | +1.8% #42 |
| +3.5% #82 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.3% #55 |
| −0.150 #118 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.065 #93 |
| −0.240 #127 | Passing EPA / play | +0.078 #39 |
| +0.072 #84 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.035 #61 |
| +0.020 #62 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.022 #41 |
| −8.5 #112 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #54 |
| +2.7 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #52 |
| Situational | ||
| −11.0% #136 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.9% #22 |
| +1.2% #70 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #57 |
| −1.18 #120 | Points per drive | +0.36 #44 |
| +0.38 #57 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #58 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.35 #108 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #48 |
| +0.17 #80 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #82 |
| +4.7% #120 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.2% #3 |
| −1.6% #81 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.0% #113 |
| +4.0% #131 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #37 |
| −2.4% #109 | Havoc created | +0.8% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.110 #23 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.119 #114 |
| −0.238 #135 | Passing explosiveness | +0.078 #39 |
| −0.21 #81 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #69 |
| +0.060 #102 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.089 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 50% #96 | Run rate | 41% #134 |
| −6.5 #49 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.2 #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| WSU | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 19.0 / 25.0 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| -6.0 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -3.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 56.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
Washington State: last 5 games
| L6-26 | |
| L24-34 | |
| W48-7 | |
| L7-34 | |
| L10-24 |
Oregon State: last 5 games
| W56-26 | |
| W33-7 | |
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
