BEAVER
MODEL
Home
NFL
NCAAF
NBA
NCAAB
MLB
How It Works
My Slip
NCAAF
›
Teams
› Utah State
Utah State
Pac-12 · 2026
1-4
Record
3.6-7.4
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
−5.8
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM
vs Washington State
64% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Sep 5
vs
Idaho State
L
17-29
−26.5
−15.5
Sep 12
at
Washington
L
14-16
+27.7
+28.5
Sep 19
at
12
Utah
L
0-33
+25.8
+26.5
Sep 26
vs
Troy
W
21-10
−5.6
−3
Oct 3
at
23
Boise State
L
18-37
+20.1
+19.5
Oct 9
vs
Washington State
64%
−5.6
−5.5
Oct 24
at
Texas State
23%
+11.9
–
Oct 31
vs
Colorado State
68%
−7.8
–
Nov 7
vs
Fresno State
41%
+3.5
–
Nov 14
at
San Diego State
39%
+4.2
–
Nov 21
at
Oregon State
22%
+12.3
–
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.31
−0.19
−0.07
+0.05
+0.17
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: −0.12
Net · 2: −0.28
Net · 3: −0.24
Net · 4: −0.22
Net · 5: −0.18
Net · 6: −0.19
Net · 7: −0.19
Net · 8: −0.19
Net · 9: −0.19
Net · 10: −0.19
Net · 11: −0.19
Net · 12: −0.19
Net · 13: −0.19
Net · 15: −0.19
Offense · 1: −0.03
Offense · 2: −0.14
Offense · 3: −0.17
Offense · 4: −0.16
Offense · 5: −0.15
Offense · 6: −0.15
Offense · 7: −0.15
Offense · 8: −0.15
Offense · 9: −0.15
Offense · 10: −0.15
Offense · 11: −0.15
Offense · 12: −0.15
Offense · 13: −0.15
Offense · 15: −0.15
Defense (lower is better) · 1: +0.09
Defense (lower is better) · 2: +0.13
Defense (lower is better) · 3: +0.07
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.06
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.03
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1407
1415
1424
1432
1441
Sep 5
Sep 12
Sep 19
Sep 26
Oct 3
Elo · Sep 5: 1423
Elo · Sep 12: 1419
Elo · Sep 19: 1409
Elo · Sep 26: 1438
Elo · Oct 3: 1427
Season to date
Record
1-4
Conference
0-1
Home
1-1
Away
0-3
Against the spread
3-2
Over/under
1-4
Points for / against
14.0 / 25.0
Avg margin
-11.0