Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 6:00 PM ET
Reser Stadium · 58° · wind 3 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (SDSU–Oregon State) | 18–30 | 17–37 | – |
| Spread | Oregon State −11.8 | Oregon State −20.4 | Oregon State −14.5 |
| Total | 48.0 | 54.2 | 53.5 |
| Oregon State win chance | 77% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SDSU +14.5 ★ Under 53.5
Spread: 2.7 pts better than Vegas for San Diego State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.5 pts below Vegas (50% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Oregon State −14.5 ☆ Over 53.5
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Oregon State. Total: 0.7 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 11.85%
San Diego State by 14+
18%
San Diego State by 1–13
33%
Oregon State by 1–13
45%
Oregon State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| SDSU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.189 #125 | Offense EPA / play | +0.078 #32 |
| +0.025 #59 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.033 #62 |
| −8.9% #133 | Offense success rate | +1.9% #42 |
| +4.1% #90 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #55 |
| −0.090 #102 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.064 #91 |
| −0.315 #136 | Passing EPA / play | +0.079 #39 |
| −0.043 #32 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.036 #61 |
| +0.082 #83 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.021 #41 |
| −7.5 #104 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.7 #54 |
| +1.0 #64 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.2 #52 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.3% #122 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.9% #22 |
| −0.3% #52 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.5% #58 |
| −0.95 #105 | Points per drive | +0.36 #44 |
| +0.27 #50 | Points per drive allowed | +0.38 #58 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.17 #81 | Line yards per rush | +0.02 #48 |
| +0.36 #113 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.19 #81 |
| +2.9% #98 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.3% #3 |
| −7.4% #135 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.1% #114 |
| +1.1% #93 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.6% #37 |
| −2.5% #110 | Havoc created | +0.8% #43 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.110 #24 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.119 #113 |
| +0.024 #61 | Passing explosiveness | +0.079 #39 |
| −0.27 #88 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.11 #68 |
| +0.010 #88 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.089 #46 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 59% #14 | Run rate | 41% #134 |
| −5.8 #42 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.2 #56 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| SDSU | Season to date | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 5-0 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 24.6 / 28.8 | Points for / against | 37.0 / 23.6 |
| -4.2 | Avg margin | +13.4 |
| -7.3 | Avg vs. the spread | +15.5 |
| 54.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.2 |
San Diego State: last 5 games
| W31-29 | |
| L16-41 | |
| L13-26 | |
| L10-28 | |
| W53-20 |
Oregon State: last 5 games
| W56-26 | |
| W33-7 | |
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
