Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium · 71° · wind 16 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Boise State–Fresno State) | 28–20 | 26–22 | – |
| Spread | Boise State −7.4 | Boise State −3.9 | Boise State −6.5 |
| Total | 48.0 | 48.0 | 48.5 |
| Fresno State win chance | 32% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Boise State −6.5 ★ Under 48.5
Spread: 0.9 pts better than Vegas for Boise State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Fresno State +6.5 ☆ Under 48.5
Spread: 2.6 pts better than Vegas for Fresno State. Total: 0.5 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Boise State by 7.434%
Boise State by 14+
34%
Boise State by 1–13
23%
Fresno State by 1–13
9%
Fresno State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Boise State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.103 #22 | Offense EPA / play | −0.077 #94 |
| −0.026 #40 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.033 #36 |
| +3.1% #31 | Offense success rate | −5.5% #110 |
| −2.9% #21 | Defense success rate allowed | +3.3% #81 |
| +0.037 #45 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.192 #126 |
| +0.160 #21 | Passing EPA / play | +0.122 #31 |
| +0.070 #82 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.002 #44 |
| −0.098 #23 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.050 #33 |
| +4.2 #39 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.1 #81 |
| −2.7 #36 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −2.0 #40 |
| Situational | ||
| +5.2% #20 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −0.6% #59 |
| −0.8% #46 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.3% #72 |
| +0.38 #41 | Points per drive | −0.46 #86 |
| −0.14 #29 | Points per drive allowed | +0.57 #71 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.15 #26 | Line yards per rush | −0.63 #128 |
| −0.16 #28 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.20 #82 |
| −0.9% #46 | Runs stuffed at the line | +9.9% #136 |
| +5.3% #8 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.3% #74 |
| −3.8% #8 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #66 |
| +3.2% #13 | Havoc created | +0.1% #55 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.014 #75 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.075 #101 |
| +0.048 #48 | Passing explosiveness | −0.004 #77 |
| −0.13 #70 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.03 #59 |
| +0.206 #133 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.159 #23 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 60% #11 | Run rate | 52% #58 |
| −3.0 #29 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.8 #95 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Boise State | Season to date | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 3-0 | Home | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 34.4 / 20.6 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 16.4 |
| +13.8 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| +5.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.4 |
| 67.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Boise State: last 5 games
| W37-18 | |
| W32-7 | |
| W38-24 | |
| W38-20 | |
| L27-34 |
Fresno State: last 5 games
| W26-6 | |
| W38-24 | |
| W26-10 | |
| W49-3 | |
| L0-39 |
