Final
Sat, Oct 3, 6:00 PM ET
Canvas Stadium · 76° · wind 13 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon State–Colorado State) | 33–29 | – | 56–26 |
| Spread | Oregon State −4.1 | Oregon State −7 | Oregon State −30 |
| Total | 62.0 | 60.5 | 82 |
| Colorado State win chance | 40% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon State −3.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Colorado State +7 Lost★ Over 60.5 Won
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for Colorado State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.5 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 4.127%
Oregon State by 14+
33%
Oregon State by 1–13
27%
Colorado State by 1–13
14%
Colorado State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.038 #45 | Offense EPA / play | +0.069 #30 |
| +0.029 #65 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.153 #116 |
| −1.8% #80 | Offense success rate | −2.4% #85 |
| −1.9% #31 | Defense success rate allowed | +6.9% #119 |
| −0.103 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.058 #38 |
| +0.030 #53 | Passing EPA / play | +0.079 #39 |
| +0.027 #65 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.168 #124 |
| −0.032 #43 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.248 #129 |
| −1.3 #68 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.2 #39 |
| +0.3 #58 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +12.0 #132 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.1% #77 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +0.5% #52 |
| −2.4% #32 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.5% #107 |
| −0.00 #62 | Points per drive | −0.14 #70 |
| +0.26 #47 | Points per drive allowed | +1.54 #121 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.10 #67 | Line yards per rush | −0.50 #123 |
| +0.13 #73 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.56 #129 |
| −4.2% #9 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.8% #83 |
| −5.1% #121 | Opponent runs stuffed | −4.5% #115 |
| −0.1% #64 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +1.9% #106 |
| +0.9% #40 | Havoc created | +1.0% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.146 #124 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.232 #1 |
| +0.168 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.141 #25 |
| −0.13 #68 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.48 #11 |
| −0.068 #53 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.163 #128 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 40% #136 | Run rate | 45% #127 |
| −6.1 #38 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.6 #74 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon State | Season to date | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 2-2 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 5-0 |
| 37.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 37.4 / 38.6 |
| +13.4 | Avg margin | -1.2 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.2 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 58.8 |
Oregon State: last 4 games
| W33-7 | |
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
Colorado State: last 4 games
| L45-59 | |
| L23-41 | |
| W58-24 | |
| W35-13 |
