Final
Sat, Sep 26, 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl · 74° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Oregon State–UTEP) | 34–26 | – | 33–7 |
| Spread | Oregon State −7.8 | Oregon State −11.5 | Oregon State −26 |
| Total | 59.7 | 56.5 | 40 |
| UTEP win chance | 32% | – | – |
Line moved from Oregon State −12.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ UTEP +11.5 Lost★ Over 56.5 Lost
Spread: 3.7 pts better than Vegas for UTEP (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 3.2 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Oregon State by 7.835%
Oregon State by 14+
33%
Oregon State by 1–13
23%
UTEP by 1–13
9%
UTEP by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oregon State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.018 #53 | Offense EPA / play | −0.185 #131 |
| +0.072 #82 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.177 #129 |
| −3.8% #98 | Offense success rate | −5.0% #107 |
| +0.6% #56 | Defense success rate allowed | +8.3% #130 |
| −0.162 #121 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.211 #134 |
| +0.031 #46 | Passing EPA / play | −0.043 #85 |
| +0.061 #78 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.076 #92 |
| +0.040 #70 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.354 #135 |
| −1.0 #70 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.7 #97 |
| +4.7 #88 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +14.6 #137 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.0% #96 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −6.9% #118 |
| +2.2% #79 | Passing-down success allowed | +11.5% #135 |
| +0.14 #49 | Points per drive | −0.58 #91 |
| +0.68 #79 | Points per drive allowed | +2.97 #137 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.20 #85 | Line yards per rush | −0.64 #130 |
| +0.19 #77 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.22 #86 |
| −3.8% #8 | Runs stuffed at the line | +9.7% #137 |
| −4.2% #114 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.4% #43 |
| +0.6% #83 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.1% #133 |
| +0.8% #43 | Havoc created | −3.4% #123 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.159 #124 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.031 #78 |
| +0.230 #10 | Passing explosiveness | +0.066 #44 |
| −0.46 #118 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.19 #77 |
| −0.055 #55 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.059 #53 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 41% #136 | Run rate | 54% #45 |
| −3.7 #28 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.0 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oregon State | Season to date | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 1-4 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 1-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Away | 0-3 |
| 5-0 | Against the spread | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 37.0 / 23.6 | Points for / against | 16.4 / 41.4 |
| +13.4 | Avg margin | -25.0 |
| +15.5 | Avg vs. the spread | -8.5 |
| 59.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 36.6 |
Oregon State: last 3 games
| W52-17 | |
| L24-35 | |
| L20-33 |
UTEP: last 3 games
| L17-52 | |
| W51-10 | |
| L0-51 |
