Final
Sat, Sep 26, 10:00 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium · 82° · wind 3 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Rice–Fresno State) | 16–28 | – | 24–38 |
| Spread | Fresno State −12.5 | Fresno State −12.5 | Fresno State −14 |
| Total | 44.0 | 43.5 | 62 |
| Fresno State win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Fresno State −13.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Over 43.5 Won
Total: 0.5 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Fresno State by 12.54%
Rice by 14+
17%
Rice by 1–13
33%
Fresno State by 1–13
46%
Fresno State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Rice | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.127 #113 | Offense EPA / play | −0.103 #107 |
| +0.100 #100 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.047 #36 |
| −4.6% #114 | Offense success rate | −5.9% #125 |
| +4.8% #117 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.9% #82 |
| −0.042 #105 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.163 #135 |
| −0.258 #129 | Passing EPA / play | +0.091 #31 |
| +0.170 #131 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.087 #24 |
| −0.038 #42 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.078 #83 |
| −9.5 #130 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −5.5 #95 |
| +4.6 #99 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.4 #25 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.2% #91 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −2.5% #79 |
| +4.6% #116 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.2% #120 |
| −0.89 #110 | Points per drive | −0.41 #85 |
| +1.01 #123 | Points per drive allowed | +0.06 #68 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.13 #60 | Line yards per rush | −0.30 #128 |
| +0.24 #111 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.04 #71 |
| −1.3% #84 | Runs stuffed at the line | +4.7% #132 |
| −4.7% #128 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.5% #65 |
| −2.6% #42 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.3% #75 |
| −0.8% #78 | Havoc created | +0.3% #54 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.100 #28 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.086 #111 |
| +0.292 #20 | Passing explosiveness | +0.254 #25 |
| −0.21 #77 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #98 |
| −0.058 #43 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.052 #45 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 75% #4 | Run rate | 58% #45 |
| −2.3 #28 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.3 #58 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Rice | Season to date | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-2 | Home | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 2-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 18.0 / 27.4 | Points for / against | 27.8 / 16.4 |
| -9.4 | Avg margin | +11.4 |
| +1.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.4 |
| 57.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.4 |
Rice: last 3 games
| L21-28 | |
| L0-52 | |
| W31-3 |
Fresno State: last 3 games
| W26-10 | |
| W49-3 | |
| L0-39 |
