Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM ET
Michigan Stadium · 49° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Penn State–Michigan) | 17–28 | – |
| Spread | Michigan −10.6 | Michigan −6.5 |
| Total | 44.4 | 51.5 |
| Michigan win chance | 75% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Michigan −6.5 ★ Under 51.5
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Michigan (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 7.1 pts below Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Michigan by 10.66%
Penn State by 14+
19%
Penn State by 1–13
34%
Michigan by 1–13
41%
Michigan by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Penn State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.030 #50 | Offense EPA / play | +0.007 #59 |
| −0.064 #24 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.073 #20 |
| −2.1% #82 | Offense success rate | +1.0% #50 |
| −1.4% #33 | Defense success rate allowed | −4.4% #14 |
| −0.058 #87 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.033 #50 |
| +0.110 #35 | Passing EPA / play | −0.039 #77 |
| +0.088 #91 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.054 #28 |
| −0.307 #1 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.184 #13 |
| +2.4 #46 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −1.1 #70 |
| −5.8 #19 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.3 #23 |
| Situational | ||
| +1.2% #50 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.7% #32 |
| −3.5% #21 | Passing-down success allowed | −3.6% #19 |
| +0.54 #35 | Points per drive | −0.16 #72 |
| −0.21 #24 | Points per drive allowed | −0.39 #17 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.44 #117 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #18 |
| −0.13 #31 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #43 |
| +0.1% #63 | Runs stuffed at the line | −5.2% #4 |
| +3.5% #18 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.0% #54 |
| +0.5% #75 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #72 |
| +2.3% #24 | Havoc created | +1.2% #36 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.057 #94 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.014 #63 |
| +0.106 #30 | Passing explosiveness | −0.012 #84 |
| −0.38 #105 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.28 #90 |
| −0.494 #1 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.099 #113 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 52% #64 | Run rate | 55% #31 |
| −6.0 #46 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.3 #25 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Penn State | Season to date | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 32.0 / 16.0 | Points for / against | 23.0 / 15.8 |
| +16.0 | Avg margin | +7.2 |
| -4.0 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.3 |
| 53.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 57.2 |
Penn State: last 5 games
| L13-34 | |
| L20-24 | |
| W55-13 | |
| W27-9 | |
| W45-0 |
Michigan: last 5 games
| L14-20 | |
| L19-20 | |
| W52-17 | |
| W17-10 | |
| W13-12 |
