Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM ET
Camp Randall Stadium · 64° · wind 10 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Michigan State–Wisconsin) | 18–30 | – | 3–31 |
| Spread | Wisconsin −12.6 | Wisconsin −8.5 | Wisconsin −28 |
| Total | 47.9 | 43.5 | 34 |
| Wisconsin win chance | 79% | – | – |
Line moved from Wisconsin −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Wisconsin −8.5 Won★ Over 43.5 Lost
Spread: 4.1 pts better than Vegas for Wisconsin (sides with a gap this size have won 54% in the backtest). Total: 4.4 pts above Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wisconsin by 12.65%
Michigan State by 14+
17%
Michigan State by 1–13
32%
Wisconsin by 1–13
46%
Wisconsin by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Michigan State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.070 #95 | Offense EPA / play | +0.007 #60 |
| +0.014 #67 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.054 #32 |
| +2.8% #42 | Offense success rate | −0.0% #71 |
| −0.0% #60 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.7% #26 |
| −0.041 #102 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.122 #33 |
| −0.076 #84 | Passing EPA / play | −0.019 #66 |
| +0.005 #61 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.045 #81 |
| +0.018 #59 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.125 #18 |
| −3.7 #87 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +2.2 #45 |
| −4.7 #28 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.9 #27 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.3% #85 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −1.8% #66 |
| −1.0% #57 | Passing-down success allowed | −7.5% #4 |
| −0.39 #87 | Points per drive | +0.25 #46 |
| −0.84 #13 | Points per drive allowed | −0.86 #11 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.05 #82 | Line yards per rush | +0.16 #54 |
| −0.15 #44 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.06 #77 |
| +0.2% #103 | Runs stuffed at the line | −4.1% #39 |
| +6.6% #5 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.6% #117 |
| +1.7% #125 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.4% #67 |
| −0.7% #75 | Havoc created | +0.0% #55 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.176 #132 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.192 #7 |
| −0.029 #118 | Passing explosiveness | +0.203 #37 |
| −0.40 #107 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.14 #68 |
| +0.104 #106 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.149 #15 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 58% #43 | Run rate | 57% #59 |
| +4.8 #4 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.4 #24 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Michigan State | Season to date | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2-1 | Against the spread | 3-2 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 3-2 |
| 18.2 / 23.2 | Points for / against | 31.6 / 16.6 |
| -5.0 | Avg margin | +15.0 |
| -1.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +6.0 |
| 64.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 55.8 |
Michigan State: last 4 games
| L13-31 | |
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
Wisconsin: last 4 games
| W24-20 | |
| W54-10 | |
| W36-9 | |
| L13-41 |
