Final
Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · 95° · wind 11 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Washington–USC) | 23–35 | – | 21–25 |
| Spread | USC −11.9 | USC −7.5 | USC −4 |
| Total | 58.9 | 58.5 | 46 |
| USC win chance | 77% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −10 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ USC −7.5 Lost★ Over 58.5 Lost
Spread: 4.4 pts better than Vegas for USC (sides with a gap this size have won 52% in the backtest). Total: 0.4 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 11.96%
Washington by 14+
18%
Washington by 1–13
32%
USC by 1–13
45%
USC by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Washington | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.008 #63 | Offense EPA / play | +0.208 #4 |
| −0.030 #38 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.067 #76 |
| +0.2% #59 | Offense success rate | +9.0% #7 |
| +0.3% #51 | Defense success rate allowed | +1.1% #57 |
| −0.063 #88 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.034 #48 |
| −0.002 #61 | Passing EPA / play | +0.361 #2 |
| −0.040 #31 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.026 #64 |
| +0.022 #61 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.167 #109 |
| −1.4 #70 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +10.0 #11 |
| −0.8 #47 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.1 #55 |
| Situational | ||
| −2.2% #80 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +12.7% #3 |
| +1.2% #71 | Passing-down success allowed | +5.7% #109 |
| −0.27 #79 | Points per drive | +1.68 #8 |
| +0.24 #46 | Points per drive allowed | +0.28 #49 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.29 #103 | Line yards per rush | +0.23 #19 |
| +0.06 #63 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.18 #26 |
| +5.0% #118 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.2% #46 |
| +4.6% #11 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.3% #53 |
| −0.2% #61 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.8% #4 |
| +1.4% #32 | Havoc created | −3.1% #114 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.064 #99 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.008 #67 |
| −0.131 #118 | Passing explosiveness | +0.074 #45 |
| −0.42 #113 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.39 #109 |
| −0.005 #82 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.144 #124 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 45% #122 | Run rate | 52% #63 |
| −12.8 #98 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −2.8 #22 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Washington | Season to date | USC |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 3-1 | Home | 4-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 1-4 | Against the spread | 1-5 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 4-2 |
| 26.6 / 18.4 | Points for / against | 37.3 / 25.5 |
| +8.2 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -11.7 | Avg vs. the spread | -7.2 |
| 62.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.0 |
Washington: last 4 games
| L24-27 | |
| W48-16 | |
| W16-14 | |
| W24-10 |
USC: last 5 games
| L27-41 | |
| W42-35 | |
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
