Final
Sat, Sep 26, 5:00 PM ET
Spartan Stadium · 64° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Nebraska–Michigan State) | 28–22 | – | 31–13 |
| Spread | Nebraska −5.8 | Nebraska −6 | Nebraska −18 |
| Total | 50.1 | 48.5 | 44 |
| Michigan State win chance | 36% | – | – |
Line moved from Nebraska −5.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Michigan State +6 Lost★ Over 48.5 Lost
Spread: 0.2 pts better than Vegas for Michigan State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.6 pts above Vegas (52% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Nebraska by 5.830%
Nebraska by 14+
34%
Nebraska by 1–13
25%
Michigan State by 1–13
11%
Michigan State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Nebraska | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.140 #16 | Offense EPA / play | −0.048 #87 |
| −0.005 #52 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.022 #67 |
| +3.5% #33 | Offense success rate | +1.4% #51 |
| −3.2% #28 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.4% #64 |
| +0.218 #7 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.010 #89 |
| +0.064 #38 | Passing EPA / play | −0.110 #100 |
| +0.039 #81 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.049 #89 |
| −0.145 #15 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.006 #56 |
| +5.4 #23 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.4 #84 |
| −4.4 #24 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −5.4 #18 |
| Situational | ||
| +7.9% #9 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −4.1% #89 |
| −6.9% #7 | Passing-down success allowed | −0.5% #56 |
| +0.89 #24 | Points per drive | −0.31 #79 |
| −0.25 #41 | Points per drive allowed | −0.81 #13 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.37 #22 | Line yards per rush | +0.04 #80 |
| −0.08 #52 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #55 |
| −4.3% #34 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.1% #99 |
| +0.7% #59 | Opponent runs stuffed | +6.4% #5 |
| −2.5% #44 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.4% #105 |
| +0.4% #51 | Havoc created | −0.2% #68 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.228 #5 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.108 #115 |
| +0.105 #73 | Passing explosiveness | +0.002 #106 |
| +0.33 #18 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.28 #91 |
| +0.009 #70 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.080 #97 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #51 | Run rate | 58% #44 |
| −15.3 #108 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | +0.5 #16 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Nebraska | Season to date | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 2-0 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-0 | Home | 2-1 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 43.6 / 14.2 | Points for / against | 18.2 / 23.2 |
| +29.4 | Avg margin | -5.0 |
| +8.8 | Avg vs. the spread | -1.9 |
| 62.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.8 |
Nebraska: last 3 games
| W34-7 | |
| W56-7 | |
| W49-21 |
Michigan State: last 3 games
| L10-27 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W30-20 |
