Final
Sat, Sep 19, 3:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium · 68° · wind 7 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (USC–Rutgers) | 39–20 | – | 42–35 |
| Spread | USC −19.5 | USC −21 | USC −7 |
| Total | 59.0 | 59.5 | 77 |
| Rutgers win chance | 12% | – | – |
Line moved from USC −24.5 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Rutgers +21 Won★ Under 59.5 Lost
Spread: 1.5 pts better than Vegas for Rutgers (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 0.5 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around USC by 19.563%
USC by 14+
25%
USC by 1–13
10%
Rutgers by 1–13
2%
Rutgers by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| USC | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.173 #9 | Offense EPA / play | −0.072 #91 |
| +0.000 #43 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.123 #104 |
| +9.4% #3 | Offense success rate | +0.6% #48 |
| −1.9% #24 | Defense success rate allowed | +5.4% #101 |
| −0.044 #81 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.173 #128 |
| +0.364 #3 | Passing EPA / play | +0.052 #40 |
| −0.021 #41 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.097 #95 |
| +0.126 #100 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.181 #116 |
| +10.1 #12 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | −3.2 #82 |
| −2.2 #33 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +7.5 #110 |
| Situational | ||
| +9.9% #7 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.5% #33 |
| −0.3% #44 | Passing-down success allowed | +3.9% #91 |
| +1.57 #14 | Points per drive | −0.54 #89 |
| +0.06 #36 | Points per drive allowed | +0.61 #72 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.17 #22 | Line yards per rush | −0.23 #91 |
| −0.14 #32 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.31 #98 |
| −0.3% #57 | Runs stuffed at the line | +2.6% #99 |
| +0.9% #43 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.7% #80 |
| −4.2% #4 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +4.4% #136 |
| −1.2% #82 | Havoc created | −4.0% #131 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.178 #131 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.059 #96 |
| +0.001 #75 | Passing explosiveness | +0.201 #15 |
| −0.37 #104 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.40 #110 |
| +0.059 #104 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.014 #76 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 53% #54 | Run rate | 51% #82 |
| −7.3 #44 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.4 #64 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| USC | Season to date | Rutgers |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 4-1 | Home | 1-3 |
| 1-0 | Away | 0-1 |
| 1-5 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 4-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.3 / 25.5 | Points for / against | 30.0 / 32.2 |
| +11.8 | Avg margin | -2.2 |
| -7.2 | Avg vs. the spread | -6.9 |
| 64.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 52.2 |
USC: last 3 games
| W49-30 | |
| W39-0 | |
| W42-26 |
Rutgers: last 2 games
| L21-28 | |
| L21-37 |
