Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium · 79° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (North Carolina–Duke) | 24–26 | – |
| Spread | Duke −1.6 | Duke −4.5 |
| Total | 50.6 | 48.5 |
| Duke win chance | 54% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ North Carolina +4.5 ★ Over 48.5
Spread: 2.9 pts better than Vegas for North Carolina (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.1 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Duke by 1.616%
North Carolina by 14+
30%
North Carolina by 1–13
32%
Duke by 1–13
22%
Duke by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| North Carolina | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.050 #41 | Offense EPA / play | +0.004 #64 |
| −0.009 #54 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.029 #45 |
| +5.0% #19 | Offense success rate | −1.4% #84 |
| +1.2% #76 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.2% #67 |
| +0.082 #49 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.061 #58 |
| +0.038 #46 | Passing EPA / play | −0.033 #70 |
| +0.086 #101 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.133 #19 |
| −0.052 #32 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.028 #66 |
| −2.0 #73 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.5 #53 |
| −4.5 #28 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −4.1 #34 |
| Situational | ||
| +3.6% #32 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | −5.3% #104 |
| −3.1% #34 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.7% #18 |
| +0.01 #66 | Points per drive | +0.21 #57 |
| −0.53 #30 | Points per drive allowed | −0.17 #48 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.62 #5 | Line yards per rush | +0.14 #62 |
| +0.31 #118 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.02 #64 |
| −3.8% #43 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.7% #104 |
| −5.0% #131 | Opponent runs stuffed | −1.4% #93 |
| −1.9% #56 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −3.7% #22 |
| −2.2% #104 | Havoc created | +0.6% #45 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.055 #100 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.074 #46 |
| +0.104 #73 | Passing explosiveness | +0.142 #49 |
| −0.24 #83 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.02 #49 |
| −0.130 #20 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.087 #33 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #95 | Run rate | 59% #34 |
| +2.0 #14 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.1 #119 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| North Carolina | Season to date | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 1-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 24.0 / 19.5 | Points for / against | 36.2 / 11.0 |
| +4.5 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| +3.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.1 |
| 54.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 60.2 |
North Carolina: last 4 games
| L26-37 | |
| L20-28 | |
| W35-3 | |
| W15-10 |
Duke: last 4 games
| W62-7 | |
| W35-7 | |
| W31-27 | |
| W17-3 |
