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North Carolina
ACC · 2026
2-2
Record
5.6-6.4
Projected regular season
0%
Playoff chance
+3.3
Rating (pts vs. avg)
Next
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM
at Pittsburgh
31% to win
Matchup →
Schedule
results, or Beaver’s win chance for games ahead
Date
Opponent
Result / win chance
Beaver line
Vegas
Aug 29
vs
TCU
W
15-10
+9.2
+7.5
Sep 12
vs
East Tennessee State
W
35-3
−37.2
−36.5
Sep 19
at
Clemson
L
20-28
+3.5
+3
Oct 3
vs
3
Notre Dame
L
26-37
+21.6
+21
Oct 10
at
25
Pittsburgh
31%
+8.1
+3.5
Oct 17
at
Duke
45%
+2
+4.5
Oct 24
vs
Syracuse
70%
−8.5
–
Oct 31
vs
4
Miami
10%
+20.8
–
Nov 7
at
UConn
68%
−7.7
–
Nov 14
vs
Louisville
39%
+4.6
–
Nov 21
at
Virginia
46%
+1.4
–
Nov 28
vs
NC State
46%
+1.6
+1.5
Rating by week
EPA per play vs. average
−0.08
−0.04
−0.01
+0.03
+0.06
Entering week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
15
Net · 1: −0.07
Net · 2: −0.01
Net · 3: +0.03
Net · 4: −0.03
Net · 5: −0.00
Net · 6: +0.04
Net · 7: +0.04
Net · 8: +0.04
Net · 9: +0.04
Net · 10: +0.04
Net · 11: +0.04
Net · 12: +0.04
Net · 13: +0.04
Net · 15: +0.04
Offense · 1: −0.01
Offense · 2: −0.03
Offense · 3: −0.01
Offense · 4: −0.02
Offense · 5: +0.00
Offense · 6: +0.05
Offense · 7: +0.05
Offense · 8: +0.05
Offense · 9: +0.05
Offense · 10: +0.05
Offense · 11: +0.05
Offense · 12: +0.05
Offense · 13: +0.05
Offense · 15: +0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 1: +0.05
Defense (lower is better) · 2: −0.03
Defense (lower is better) · 3: −0.04
Defense (lower is better) · 4: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 5: +0.00
Defense (lower is better) · 6: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 7: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 8: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 9: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 10: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 11: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 12: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 13: +0.01
Defense (lower is better) · 15: +0.01
●
Net
●
Offense
●
Defense (lower is better)
Elo rating
after each game
1461
1468
1475
1482
1488
Aug 29
Sep 12
Sep 19
Oct 3
Elo · Aug 29: 1474
Elo · Sep 12: 1487
Elo · Sep 19: 1472
Elo · Oct 3: 1463
Season to date
Record
2-2
Conference
0-1
Home
1-1
Away
0-1
Against the spread
2-2
Over/under
2-2
Points for / against
24.0 / 19.5
Avg margin
+4.5