Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome · Indoors
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Louisville–Syracuse) | 33–24 | – |
| Spread | Louisville −8.9 | No line |
| Total | 57.2 | n/a |
| Syracuse win chance | 29% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Louisville by 8.938%
Louisville by 14+
33%
Louisville by 1–13
21%
Syracuse by 1–13
8%
Syracuse by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Louisville | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.121 #20 | Offense EPA / play | −0.068 #93 |
| −0.002 #57 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.009 #52 |
| +4.5% #26 | Offense success rate | +0.2% #67 |
| −3.0% #30 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.4% #85 |
| +0.106 #37 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.047 #63 |
| +0.134 #24 | Passing EPA / play | −0.085 #88 |
| −0.058 #33 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.077 #95 |
| +0.138 #96 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.156 #14 |
| +6.7 #20 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +0.2 #61 |
| +1.4 #76 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +1.8 #81 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.0% #81 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +2.2% #37 |
| −2.3% #46 | Passing-down success allowed | −4.2% #26 |
| +0.27 #54 | Points per drive | +0.19 #58 |
| −0.20 #46 | Points per drive allowed | +0.22 #77 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.06 #79 | Line yards per rush | +0.08 #72 |
| +0.17 #97 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.16 #43 |
| −0.5% #90 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #84 |
| −6.8% #138 | Opponent runs stuffed | +3.5% #25 |
| +0.3% #114 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −1.8% #61 |
| −1.9% #99 | Havoc created | +0.1% #58 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.151 #17 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.095 #112 |
| +0.174 #41 | Passing explosiveness | +0.178 #38 |
| +1.10 #2 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.21 #79 |
| +0.334 #138 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.139 #17 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 55% #73 | Run rate | 54% #94 |
| −2.5 #34 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −11.8 #100 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Louisville | Season to date | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| 1-2 | Conference | 0-2 |
| 2-1 | Home | 1-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 38.6 / 29.2 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 23.0 |
| +9.4 | Avg margin | +11.8 |
| -1.2 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.9 |
| 61.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 72.5 |
Louisville: last 5 games
| L28-31 | |
| L27-30 | |
| W41-31 | |
| W59-13 | |
| L38-41 |
Syracuse: last 4 games
| W42-41 | |
| L13-27 | |
| L18-21 | |
| W66-3 |
