Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 12:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium · 65° · wind 10 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Wake Forest–NC State) | 29–27 | 38–22 | – |
| Spread | Wake Forest −1.9 | Wake Forest −15.7 | Wake Forest −3.5 |
| Total | 56.4 | 60.1 | 59.5 |
| NC State win chance | 45% | – | – |
Line moved from Wake Forest −4 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ NC State +3.5 ★ Under 59.5
Spread: 1.6 pts better than Vegas for NC State (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Wake Forest −3.5 ☆ Over 59.5
Spread: 12.2 pts better than Vegas for Wake Forest. Total: 0.6 pts above Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Wake Forest by 1.923%
Wake Forest by 14+
32%
Wake Forest by 1–13
29%
NC State by 1–13
16%
NC State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Wake Forest | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.111 #21 | Offense EPA / play | +0.078 #31 |
| −0.040 #31 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.096 #90 |
| +2.8% #34 | Offense success rate | +2.2% #40 |
| −1.1% #37 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.5% #74 |
| +0.110 #18 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.058 #87 |
| +0.100 #36 | Passing EPA / play | +0.183 #18 |
| −0.049 #30 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.008 #43 |
| −0.076 #26 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.169 #113 |
| +5.0 #32 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +5.5 #29 |
| −3.2 #32 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +2.4 #75 |
| Situational | ||
| +6.8% #12 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.9% #7 |
| +1.6% #82 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.7% #84 |
| +0.58 #31 | Points per drive | +0.95 #21 |
| −0.26 #23 | Points per drive allowed | +0.53 #67 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.12 #30 | Line yards per rush | −0.18 #84 |
| −0.27 #18 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.03 #45 |
| −0.9% #48 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.6% #70 |
| +5.3% #7 | Opponent runs stuffed | +2.0% #32 |
| −2.2% #27 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.1% #69 |
| −0.9% #71 | Havoc created | +1.1% #39 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.016 #61 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.059 #97 |
| +0.043 #50 | Passing explosiveness | −0.078 #102 |
| +0.03 #49 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.04 #48 |
| −0.293 #3 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.057 #101 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #75 | Run rate | 53% #56 |
| −2.0 #21 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.7 #63 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Wake Forest | Season to date | NC State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 2-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 2-0 | Away | 0-2 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 3-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 36.6 / 23.0 | Points for / against | 36.8 / 25.6 |
| +13.6 | Avg margin | +11.2 |
| +11.1 | Avg vs. the spread | +4.5 |
| 60.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.8 |
Wake Forest: last 5 games
| W57-3 | |
| W30-27 | |
| L20-33 | |
| W38-36 | |
| W38-16 |
NC State: last 5 games
| W31-28 | |
| W41-31 | |
| L31-35 | |
| W73-0 | |
| L8-34 |
