Final
Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium · 83° · wind 6 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Virginia–Florida State) | 29–26 | – | 7–38 |
| Spread | Virginia −2.8 | Virginia −1.5 | Florida State −31 |
| Total | 54.2 | 51.5 | 45 |
| Florida State win chance | 43% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Virginia −1.5 Lost★ Over 51.5 Lost
Spread: 1.3 pts better than Vegas for Virginia (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 2.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Virginia by 2.824%
Virginia by 14+
33%
Virginia by 1–13
28%
Florida State by 1–13
15%
Florida State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Virginia | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.066 #32 | Offense EPA / play | +0.108 #24 |
| −0.017 #44 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.149 #112 |
| +2.7% #36 | Offense success rate | +2.1% #40 |
| −0.9% #42 | Defense success rate allowed | +2.7% #76 |
| +0.132 #13 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.153 #9 |
| +0.095 #35 | Passing EPA / play | +0.106 #33 |
| −0.008 #45 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.099 #98 |
| +0.047 #71 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.149 #100 |
| +3.7 #36 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +1.0 #60 |
| −6.1 #12 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.3 #57 |
| Situational | ||
| −4.7% #99 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +8.1% #8 |
| −5.9% #8 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.9% #66 |
| +0.68 #30 | Points per drive | +0.20 #48 |
| −0.41 #13 | Points per drive allowed | +0.34 #52 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.38 #7 | Line yards per rush | +0.27 #14 |
| +0.31 #102 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #91 |
| −5.6% #2 | Runs stuffed at the line | −3.8% #11 |
| −3.1% #103 | Opponent runs stuffed | −3.1% #101 |
| −3.8% #10 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | +0.3% #73 |
| +0.4% #47 | Havoc created | −1.0% #80 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.026 #51 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.145 #13 |
| −0.085 #102 | Passing explosiveness | +0.361 #3 |
| −0.25 #86 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.06 #44 |
| +0.031 #92 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.009 #89 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #29 | Run rate | 58% #19 |
| −11.8 #89 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −6.9 #44 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Virginia | Season to date | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-1 |
| 0-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 2-2-1 |
| 2-3 | Over/under | 1-4 |
| 33.8 / 18.0 | Points for / against | 33.2 / 21.6 |
| +15.8 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -0.8 | Avg vs. the spread | +1.0 |
| 55.6 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 59.0 |
Virginia: last 4 games
| W42-3 | |
| L27-38 | |
| W59-3 | |
| W34-8 |
Florida State: last 4 games
| W34-7 | |
| L36-50 | |
| L24-27 | |
| W34-17 |
