Final
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · 72° · wind 5 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | RESULT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Boston College–SMU) | 14–36 | – | 16–25 |
| Spread | SMU −22.0 | SMU −21.5 | SMU −9 |
| Total | 50.3 | 55.5 | 41 |
| SMU win chance | 92% | – | – |
Line moved from SMU −21 at open. Lines: DraftKings.
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ SMU −21.5 Lost★ Under 55.5 Won
Spread: 0.5 pts better than Vegas for SMU (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 5.2 pts below Vegas (49% historically).
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around SMU by 22.01%
Boston College by 14+
7%
Boston College by 1–13
22%
SMU by 1–13
69%
SMU by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Boston College | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.202 #132 | Offense EPA / play | +0.064 #35 |
| −0.002 #57 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.062 #30 |
| −5.9% #124 | Offense success rate | +7.1% #12 |
| −0.1% #57 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.8% #24 |
| −0.114 #122 | Rushing EPA / play | −0.021 #91 |
| −0.217 #124 | Passing EPA / play | +0.177 #14 |
| +0.009 #67 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.073 #24 |
| +0.061 #75 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.050 #37 |
| −10.6 #128 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +3.3 #39 |
| +1.7 #78 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −0.5 #61 |
| Situational | ||
| −8.4% #123 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +6.9% #11 |
| +6.7% #128 | Passing-down success allowed | −5.3% #14 |
| −1.49 #134 | Points per drive | +0.17 #53 |
| −0.10 #52 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #53 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.14 #108 | Line yards per rush | +0.10 #71 |
| +0.17 #96 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.25 #29 |
| +3.4% #127 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.1% #79 |
| −1.3% #94 | Opponent runs stuffed | +4.0% #20 |
| +1.1% #120 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.7% #39 |
| −0.2% #60 | Havoc created | +2.8% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.001 #75 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.126 #123 |
| +0.081 #82 | Passing explosiveness | +0.141 #56 |
| −0.36 #99 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.01 #53 |
| −0.049 #45 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.086 #102 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 56% #67 | Run rate | 51% #116 |
| −10.4 #82 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −9.8 #78 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Boston College | Season to date | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-2 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-2 | Against the spread | 1-3-1 |
| 0-5 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 19.0 / 23.4 | Points for / against | 34.6 / 23.0 |
| -4.4 | Avg margin | +11.6 |
| -3.9 | Avg vs. the spread | -5.3 |
| 65.0 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 63.8 |
Boston College: last 4 games
| L14-21 | |
| W22-16 | |
| W28-21 | |
| L15-34 |
SMU: last 4 games
| W34-24 | |
| L31-41 | |
| W56-10 | |
| W27-24 |
