Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium · 79° · wind 14 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (TCU–Baylor) | 19–28 | – |
| Spread | Baylor −8.2 | No line |
| Total | 47.0 | n/a |
| Baylor win chance | 70% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Baylor by 8.28%
TCU by 14+
22%
TCU by 1–13
34%
Baylor by 1–13
36%
Baylor by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| TCU | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.027 #74 | Offense EPA / play | +0.051 #38 |
| −0.097 #16 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.034 #35 |
| −1.9% #77 | Offense success rate | +0.2% #56 |
| −2.0% #28 | Defense success rate allowed | −1.1% #37 |
| −0.135 #116 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.049 #39 |
| +0.043 #50 | Passing EPA / play | +0.047 #47 |
| −0.173 #6 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.143 #13 |
| −0.049 #34 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.013 #58 |
| −1.6 #73 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.6 #34 |
| −6.4 #14 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −3.5 #29 |
| Situational | ||
| −7.7% #119 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +3.7% #33 |
| −0.7% #49 | Passing-down success allowed | +0.7% #61 |
| −0.42 #85 | Points per drive | +0.22 #55 |
| −0.34 #18 | Points per drive allowed | −0.19 #26 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.50 #122 | Line yards per rush | +0.00 #50 |
| −0.11 #34 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.01 #49 |
| +3.7% #107 | Runs stuffed at the line | −1.4% #36 |
| −0.5% #61 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.7% #48 |
| +0.8% #88 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.8% #52 |
| +0.2% #54 | Havoc created | +2.1% #25 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.140 #118 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.124 #17 |
| +0.131 #25 | Passing explosiveness | +0.151 #24 |
| −0.37 #101 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.16 #35 |
| −0.208 #8 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.211 #7 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 48% #115 | Run rate | 45% #128 |
| −5.9 #45 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.7 #61 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| TCU | Season to date | Baylor |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| 0-2 | Conference | 2-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-1 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 4-1 |
| 1-4 | Over/under | 2-3 |
| 25.4 / 13.4 | Points for / against | 34.8 / 14.2 |
| +12.0 | Avg margin | +20.6 |
| -1.7 | Avg vs. the spread | +9.3 |
| 63.4 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 69.2 |
TCU: last 5 games
| L10-17 | |
| L13-21 | |
| W31-7 | |
| W63-7 | |
| L10-15 |
Baylor: last 5 games
| W55-19 | |
| W23-13 | |
| W36-19 | |
| W44-3 | |
| L16-17 |
