Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
TDECU Stadium · 84° · wind 8 mph
Beaver vs. Vegas
| ★ BEAVER | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Score (Oklahoma State–Houston) | 22–39 | – |
| Spread | Houston −17.1 | No line |
| Total | 60.6 | n/a |
| Houston win chance | 85% | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
Waiting on the Vegas line
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 17.13%
Oklahoma State by 14+
12%
Oklahoma State by 1–13
28%
Houston by 1–13
57%
Houston by 14+
No Vegas lines for this game yet.
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Oklahoma State | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| −0.029 #76 | Offense EPA / play | +0.145 #16 |
| −0.035 #34 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.024 #58 |
| +2.0% #40 | Offense success rate | +9.2% #6 |
| +0.1% #51 | Defense success rate allowed | +0.3% #54 |
| −0.070 #95 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.056 #37 |
| +0.072 #41 | Passing EPA / play | +0.242 #8 |
| +0.000 #45 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.031 #35 |
| −0.221 #7 | Pass defense EPA allowed | +0.056 #73 |
| +1.1 #59 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +8.4 #17 |
| −0.7 #48 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −1.7 #42 |
| Situational | ||
| −3.1% #88 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +14.0% #1 |
| −4.5% #14 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #66 |
| +0.30 #49 | Points per drive | +1.33 #14 |
| +0.14 #42 | Points per drive allowed | +0.23 #46 |
| Trenches | ||
| −0.08 #64 | Line yards per rush | +0.26 #16 |
| +0.14 #75 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.19 #25 |
| +0.9% #71 | Runs stuffed at the line | −2.6% #25 |
| +0.8% #47 | Opponent runs stuffed | +0.9% #45 |
| −3.5% #12 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −4.8% #4 |
| +0.6% #45 | Havoc created | +2.9% #18 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.154 #124 | Rushing explosiveness | −0.183 #126 |
| −0.045 #91 | Passing explosiveness | +0.007 #67 |
| −0.13 #72 | Open-field yards per rush | −0.32 #94 |
| −0.095 #43 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.069 #106 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 51% #78 | Run rate | 57% #21 |
| −10.0 #78 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −7.4 #59 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Oklahoma State | Season to date | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| 1-0 | Conference | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 1-1 |
| 3-1 | Against the spread | 2-3 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 4-1 |
| 37.2 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 41.0 / 19.8 |
| +17.5 | Avg margin | +21.2 |
| +6.5 | Avg vs. the spread | +2.6 |
| 70.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 64.2 |
Oklahoma State: last 4 games
| W41-24 | |
| W59-0 | |
| W39-31 | |
| L10-24 |
Houston: last 5 games
| W27-17 | |
| W42-28 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
