Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 10:15 PM ET
Rice-Eccles Stadium · 74° · wind 19 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Kansas–Utah) | 17–34 | 15–33 | – |
| Spread | Utah −17.3 | Utah −17.9 | Utah −15.5 |
| Total | 50.3 | 48.3 | 51.5 |
| Utah win chance | 86% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Utah −15.5 ★ Under 51.5
Spread: 1.8 pts better than Vegas for Utah (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.2 pts below Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Utah −15.5 ☆ Under 51.5
Spread: 2.4 pts better than Vegas for Utah. Total: 3.2 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Utah by 17.32%
Kansas by 14+
11%
Kansas by 1–13
28%
Utah by 1–13
58%
Utah by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Kansas | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.047 #42 | Offense EPA / play | +0.170 #10 |
| −0.057 #26 | Defense EPA / play allowed | −0.050 #27 |
| +2.7% #36 | Offense success rate | +5.8% #13 |
| −5.6% #9 | Defense success rate allowed | −3.7% #16 |
| +0.066 #33 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.132 #11 |
| −0.066 #85 | Passing EPA / play | +0.166 #20 |
| −0.080 #21 | Rush defense EPA allowed | −0.000 #45 |
| +0.051 #71 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.137 #17 |
| +2.0 #52 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +9.7 #12 |
| +0.4 #56 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | −7.8 #9 |
| Situational | ||
| +0.9% #51 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +11.0% #3 |
| −5.9% #7 | Passing-down success allowed | +1.0% #65 |
| +0.64 #28 | Points per drive | +1.55 #10 |
| +0.24 #47 | Points per drive allowed | −0.10 #33 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.33 #11 | Line yards per rush | +0.26 #17 |
| −0.55 #6 | Line yards per rush allowed | −0.07 #40 |
| −5.3% #2 | Runs stuffed at the line | +1.3% #78 |
| +7.2% #5 | Opponent runs stuffed | +1.7% #34 |
| +0.5% #76 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −0.1% #65 |
| +2.3% #23 | Havoc created | +2.4% #21 |
| Big plays | ||
| +0.033 #56 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.170 #9 |
| +0.119 #27 | Passing explosiveness | −0.013 #83 |
| −0.51 #119 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.17 #33 |
| +0.067 #104 | Pass explosiveness allowed | −0.063 #58 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 54% #38 | Run rate | 52% #67 |
| −13.9 #107 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −10.9 #89 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Kansas | Season to date | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 4-0 |
| 0-1 | Conference | 1-0 |
| 2-1 | Home | 3-0 |
| 0-0 | Away | 1-0 |
| 2-2 | Against the spread | 4-0 |
| 2-2 | Over/under | 2-2 |
| 36.0 / 17.0 | Points for / against | 43.2 / 10.2 |
| +19.0 | Avg margin | +33.0 |
| +4.9 | Avg vs. the spread | +11.5 |
| 60.8 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 49.0 |
Kansas: last 4 games
| W55-0 | |
| L17-24 | |
| L21-38 | |
| W51-6 |
Utah: last 4 games
| W31-17 | |
| W33-0 | |
| W43-10 | |
| W66-14 |
