Beaver projection
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium · 85° · wind 20 mph
Three numbers, one game
| ★ BEAVER | ☆ SAM | VEGAS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Score (Houston–Kansas State) | 30–27 | 28–25 | – |
| Spread | Houston −3.4 | Houston −2.8 | Kansas State −2.5 |
| Total | 57.2 | 52.4 | 55.5 |
| Kansas State win chance | 42% | – | – |
The call
Beaver’s Pick
★ Houston +2.5 ★ Over 55.5
Spread: 5.9 pts better than Vegas for Houston (sides with a gap this size have won 51% in the backtest). Total: 1.7 pts above Vegas (51% historically).
Sam’s Pick
☆ Houston +2.5 ☆ Under 55.5
Spread: 5.3 pts better than Vegas for Houston. Total: 3.1 pts below Vegas.
How Beaver sees the margin
Range of likely outcomes around Houston by 3.426%
Houston by 14+
33%
Houston by 1–13
28%
Kansas State by 1–13
14%
Kansas State by 14+
Tale of the tape
ranks among 138 FBS teams entering this game · brighter = better of the two| Houston | Opponent-adjusted, vs. average FBS team | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency | ||
| +0.145 #16 | Offense EPA / play | +0.039 #46 |
| +0.025 #58 | Defense EPA / play allowed | +0.034 #63 |
| +9.2% #6 | Offense success rate | +1.3% #47 |
| +0.3% #54 | Defense success rate allowed | −0.4% #44 |
| +0.057 #37 | Rushing EPA / play | +0.078 #28 |
| +0.243 #8 | Passing EPA / play | −0.024 #70 |
| −0.031 #35 | Rush defense EPA allowed | +0.129 #109 |
| +0.057 #74 | Pass defense EPA allowed | −0.006 #47 |
| +8.4 #17 | Scoring offense (pts vs avg) | +4.7 #33 |
| −1.7 #44 | Scoring defense (pts vs avg) | +0.5 #57 |
| Situational | ||
| +14.1% #1 | Passing-down success (3rd & long) | +4.6% #25 |
| +1.0% #67 | Passing-down success allowed | +4.8% #102 |
| +1.33 #14 | Points per drive | +0.98 #19 |
| +0.24 #46 | Points per drive allowed | +0.56 #69 |
| Trenches | ||
| +0.27 #16 | Line yards per rush | −0.04 #55 |
| −0.19 #25 | Line yards per rush allowed | +0.25 #90 |
| −2.6% #24 | Runs stuffed at the line | +0.2% #64 |
| +0.9% #45 | Opponent runs stuffed | −0.6% #65 |
| −4.8% #4 | Havoc allowed (TFL, sacks, PBU) | −2.5% #22 |
| +2.9% #18 | Havoc created | +3.2% #15 |
| Big plays | ||
| −0.183 #126 | Rushing explosiveness | +0.068 #37 |
| +0.007 #65 | Passing explosiveness | −0.050 #95 |
| −0.31 #94 | Open-field yards per rush | +0.67 #7 |
| +0.069 #106 | Pass explosiveness allowed | +0.002 #82 |
| Style and schedule | ||
| 57% #21 | Run rate | 51% #84 |
| −7.4 #59 | Strength of schedule (avg opponent) | −16.2 #117 |
Tendencies
season to date · against the spread and over/under use closing lines| Houston | Season to date | Kansas State |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-1 | Conference | 0-1 |
| 3-0 | Home | 3-0 |
| 1-1 | Away | 0-1 |
| 2-3 | Against the spread | 2-2 |
| 4-1 | Over/under | 3-1 |
| 41.0 / 19.8 | Points for / against | 40.5 / 15.2 |
| +21.2 | Avg margin | +25.2 |
| +2.6 | Avg vs. the spread | +3.9 |
| 64.2 | Plays per game (excl. garbage time) | 62.5 |
Houston: last 5 games
| W27-17 | |
| W42-28 | |
| L26-28 | |
| W77-6 | |
| W33-20 |
Kansas State: last 4 games
| L26-31 | |
| W31-20 | |
| W34-7 | |
| W71-3 |
